Thinking Outside The Box: Roy As a Ginobili-Style Sixth Man?

At the end of a long post yesterday about Brandon Roy, Henry Abbott at TrueHoop wrote something very interesting, something that echoes my own thoughts over the last few days:

Coming soon: Some hard decisions about whether or not it makes sense to keep starting Roy, as he copes with these knee issues. Other than Roy, the Blazers' starting unit is very speedy. It might be an idea to set them free, while bringing in Roy like a designated hitter.

We all know that the Blazers under Nate McMillan play at a very slow pace. This season, true to form, the Blazers have the second slowest pace of any team in the NBA. It's hard not to notice, though, that with the exception of Brandon Roy, the Blazers' current active roster is stacked with the kind of players that would make fast-paced coaches like Mike D'Antoni and Alvin Gentry salivate.

Andre Miller is one of the very best open court point guards in the league, the master of the long outlet pass and the alley-oop lob. LaMarcus Aldridge may well be the best open court big man in the NBA, a 6'11'' player who runs like a gazelle and finishes effortlessly on fastbreaks. Nicolas Batum is likewise at his best when gliding down the court in transition. Camby, though not as skilled a finisher as Nic or LaMarcus, is also quite comfort in transition situations, particularly when trailing a play and looking for tip-ins off of misses. He's also a good outlet passer.

Moreover, as they demonstrated in the Detroit game on Tuesday, all four of the Blazers' primary bench contributors -- Rudy Fernandez, Wesley Matthews, Armon Johnson, and Dante Cunningham -- appear to be more comfortable in open court than in half court sets. Both Johnson and Fernandez have noticeably better court vision in transition situations and seem to make much better decisions in open court than they do in half-court sets. Dante Cunningham and Wes Matthews, like Aldrdige and Batum, run the court well and are excellent fast break finishers.

In the current rotation, particularly without Oden or Przybilla, Roy really is the odd man out. So what to do about that?

Though it may be a little unorthodox, I think there's a strong argument for having Roy -- at least in his current state -- come off the bench. If you think about it, Roy's skills as a scorer are the least necessary when he's playing alongside Aldridge, Miller, and Batum, all of whom can score. At the beginning of games, Roy expends a lot of energy running up and down the court while Miller does most of the ball-handling and Aldridge and Batum do a lot of the scoring. He's also forced to expend a lot of energy on defense guarding one of the other team's starting wings. Meanwhile, the Blazer second unit, while filled with energy guys, is devoid of anyone who can consistently create his own shot or function as a playmaker in half court sets.

If Roy came off the bench, he could fill that void. He could concentrate his efforts and focus his energy on scoring, not having to worry about getting everyone else involved first. And he could log a good portion of his minutes while the other team's most dangerous scorers are resting, thus easing his defensive burden.

This isn't entirely unprecedented. Manu Ginobili basically played this role for San Antonio during several of their championship runs, despite being a much more talented player than the various shooting guards the Spurs started ahead of him. Ginobili would come off the bench but also finish games, which is what I envision Brandon doing.

If and when Greg Oden gets healthy, he too could come off the bench and play at a slower pace as Roy's pick and roll partner while the more nimble Marcus Camby continues to start. In Roy's place, either Rudy Fernandez or Wes Matthews could start and play a more traditional off-ball game while Miller runs the offense. During the stretches when Roy is on the bench, the team could play at a much faster pace, looking to run whenever possible. When Roy comes in, the pace can slow and the team can play a more half-court oriented game.

I'm not suggesting that this should be the permanent arrangement, but it would be an interesting experiment, particularly while Roy is less than 100% and Oden and/or Przybilla are just coming back from injury and trying to work their way into game shape. Obviously a major obstacle to such a plan is Brandon's ego. He'd have to embrace the role for it to work and that's a lot to ask of a franchise player. But if Brandon's minutes are going to be limited, at his own request, then even he has to wonder whether there might be a more efficient way to space them out over the course of a game. Coming off the bench might well be the best way to utilized Roy's skills without limiting his teammates.

At Long Last, Blazers Achieve Lineup Clarity

Though it hasn't really been the subject of much conversation, over the last few games, something significant has happened.  For the first time all season, the Blazers have achieved unquestioned clarity with their starting lineup.  There is no longer any doubt about who should be starting at all five positions.  

There has never been any doubt that, when healthy, Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge are starters, but the other three spots have been in flux all season.  Until now.  With Steve Blake gone, Andre Miller is now, without question, the starting point guard.  Likewise, Marcus Camby is now, without question, the starting center.  And with Nicolas Batum's breakout out performances over the last two games, there is no longer any real doubt that he is the starting small forward.  

That may not seem like all that important a development, but consider this: as of today, the five man Blazer lineup that has played the most minutes so far this season is Miller-Bayless-Webster-Aldridge-Howard.  Seriously.  Imagine if someone had told you that before the season started.

A clear pecking order is an underrated ingredient to success in the NBA.  If you look around at the best teams historically, they didn't have serious lineup controversies.  They had guys who knew their roles.  They had starters who weren't constantly looking over their shoulders worried that they'd lose their starting spots, and they had bench contributors who didn't secretly (or openly) think it was some great injustice that they were coming off the bench.  

Barring further injury, I think the Blazers will, at least for the rest of this season, have a pretty clear pecking order.  I really doubt that there is anyone currently coming off the Blazer bench who believes that he deserves to be the starter.  I'm sure there are guys who want to start or believe they could be starting on other teams, but I doubt that any of them feel that they're better than the guy ahead of them in the rotation. 

Don't get me wrong, minutes are still going to be an issue going forward. But controversy over how the backup wing minutes should be distributed is far less serious and disruptive to team chemistry than, for example, controversy over who should be starting at point. My hope is that the relatively defined pecking order on the team right now will provide some much needed continuity and allow the team gel and build some real chemistry going into the stretch run. What's remarkable is, even though the starting lineup going forward is pretty well set, the guys in that lineup have spent very little time playing together as a unit. Camby is new to the team and both Roy and Batum missed major time with injury. These five guys, as a unit, are only beginning to learn how to play together. There's every reason to be optimistic that, with time, these guys will get a better sense of each other's tendencies and capabilities and their play will improve.

My hope is that this new found clarity of roles will result in more consistent play and better team play heading into the stretch run.

Some post-game thoughts (Wolves edition)

I had forgotten what scrub time looked like . . .

• When Patty Mills gets a solid five minutes of playing time to close the game, you know it went well for the Blazers.  If only we could play the Timberwolves every night.  The Blazers have now blown them out four times this year, which represents the vast majority of the Blazers' blow out wins all season.  


• The story of the night, of course, was the play of Nicolas Batum, who exploded for an astounding 22 points in the 3rd quarter, finishing with a career high 31 points, along with 7 rebounds, 7 assists, and 3 steals.  Oh, and he was +27 for the night.  He was hitting threes, driving to the hoop, gliding down the court in transition, and picking up second chance points, all while playing great defense.  Did I mention that he's only 21?  On nights like tonight it is hard not to salivate at the thought of Batum's potential. 


• An interesting subplot tonight was Nate's apparent shuffling of the point guard rotation.  Instead of bringing in Bayless when Miller first rested, McMillan went with a Roy/Fernandez backcourt, with each of them taking turns bringing the ball up the court. Nate tried that for a while in both the first and second half, and it's the first time I remember him doing that all season.  I found it odd that he would choose tonight to try that, given how well Jerryd Bayless played last night.  Jerryd only played 9 minutes tonight and much of that was in scrub time.  I'm not sure if this a reflection on Bayless' play or an attempt to find a way to get Rudy some minutes without taking them away from Batum and Webster.  I suspect the latter.   It will be interesting to see how the backup point guard minutes are distributed in the next few games.  


• I'm not sure Rudy really proved his chops as a point guard tonight, but he had a decent night anyway, for the second night in a row.  He finished with 18 points in 23 minutes.  


• Lamarcus Aldridge started out really hot and wasn't needed much after that.  He finished with a solid 21 points and 7 boards.  


• Everyone else was pretty quiet tonight, including Brandon Roy and Andre Miller, who combined for just 11 points.  Brandon did have nine assists, though.  And Marcus Camby had four blocks.


• Finding the exact right balance of minutes between all the talented players on the Blazer roster is no easy task, and it's easy for someone like me to sit here and second guess Nate's choices.  I generally think he does a pretty good job divvying up time.  That said, the one rotation choice he's currently making that puzzles me greatly is the decision to continue to play Juwan Howard significant minutes even after the acquisition of Camby.  I love Juwan Howard and appreciate the contributions he has made filling in for an injury depleted squad this season.  But with Camby now in the lineup, I really don't think it makes any sense to be playing Howard 20+ minutes a game (he played 24 tonight), especially when that results in Dante Cunningham and Jeff Pendergraph getting virtually no court time.  Prior to the arrival of Camby, Cunningham was getting around 20 minutes a night and was really contributing.  Dante's PER is 14.20 and his adjusted plus/minus is 4.36 (third best on the team).  Juwan's PER is 10.19 and his adjusted plus/minus is -8.65 (worst on the team).  I realize stats like these don't capture everything that goes on the court, but in this case they mesh with my own observations, which are that Dante always plays with a ton of energy and is probably the second best help defender on the team (behind Batum).  He really should be getting more minutes than Howard.  When Camby is resting, Aldridge should slide over to the five and Cunningham should play the four.  At the very least, ALL of the backup power forward minutes should go to Cunningham.  I cringe when I see a Howard/Camby frontcourt, as we saw for stretches tonight.  Letting Howard crowd out Cunningham (and Pendergraph) of all but spot minutes is also a very short-sighted move.  Neither Howard nor Camby are likely to be on the team next year.  Cunnigham and Pendergraph probably will.  They need this experience.   

Some post-game thoughts (Celtics edition)

I'm tired so I'll keep this brief . . .

• This was an one of the worst Blazer efforts of the year.  They were absolutely handled by a tired Celtics team on the second night of a back to back. There are, of course, some obvious excuses the Blazers can point to.  


• First, Marcus Camby is new to the team. He doesn't yet know the sets and schemes and the rest of the guys aren't used to playing with him.  You can't expect transitions like that to be seamless.


• Second, Brandon Roy is clearly not at 100%.  He's also rusty from not playing.  Tonight he was not helping the team, as evidenced by his team worst plus/minus of -17.  On the one hand, you have to cut Brandon some slack and give him the time to play his way back into form.  On the other hand, if his hamstring is going to continue to severely limit his movement, it's doubtful that all the playing time in the world is going to get him to a point where he's significantly contributing.  This is a real problem.


• What I found most discouraging tonight, however, was the way the addition of Roy and Camby seemed to affect the overall rotation.  In particular, I was bothered by the fact that Batum played only 5 minutes in the first half, Bayless played only 3, and Dante Cunningham played only 1.  Those three players provide more energy than anyone else on the team, energy that was conspicuously missing in the first half.  I'm glad the Blazers now have help at the center position now, but it is not in the short or long term interest of the team to have Camby and Howard take up all of the available front court minutes.  Dante Cunningham has been playing fantastic basketball lately and should be getting more minutes than Howard.  He's a better defender than Howard and, unlike Howard or Camby, is likely to be a part of the Blazer rotation beyond this season. 


• The same is of course true of Batum and Bayless.  When Bayless finally got some minutes in the second half, he showed why he should have been in the game sooner, repeatedly drawing fouls and getting to the line.  He finished with 14 points. 


• The Blazers have managed to stay afloat this season by out-hustling and out-working other teams.  Tonight, they were out-worked by a geriatric Boston team on the second night of a back to back.  If they play that way against the Jazz, they're going to lose by 50 points.  

Some post-game thoughts (Clippers edition)

A solid win to start the stretch run, but . . .

• The fact that Brandon Roy's return was cut short by tightness in his hamstring is very discouraging.  His hamstring does not appear to be getting better, despite all the time off.  I'm beginning to think that Brandon might not be healthy again this season, which of course does not bode well for the Blazers making a playoff push, even with the addition of Camby.   


• Speaking of which, it was nice to see both the warm reception for Camby and the many signs wishing Steve and Travis well.  For the record, I think this was an excellent trade by KP.  Camby is a legit center who will help the team, but I think even more importantly, this trade eases the logjam at the guard and forward positions.  It will help clarify rolls and ensure that the remaining players get the playing time they need to develop.  I liked both Blake and Outlaw as players and as people.  Both were excellent teammates and hard workers.  But there just wasn't enough room for everyone in the rotation and Blake and Outlaw were the guys who it made the most sense to part ways with, both from a basketball and contract perspective.  


• But back to tonight's game, there were several noteworthy performances.  Good Martell showed up tonight and hit a career high seven 3-pointers en route to 28 points.  In addition to his long range shooting, Martell also showed some aggressiveness off the dribble, driving to the hoop and getting fouled on several occasions.  He also made a few nice assists.  


• Andre Miller had a typical Miller game.  10 points, 12 assists, 6 rebounds, 2 steals.  Solid.


• LaMarcus Aldridge was also solid, contributing 22 points, 9 rebounds, and 3 steals.  


• Dante Cunningham did exactly what he's been doing lately, scoring 10 points and grabbing 5 rebounds in 20+ minutes of play, all while playing solid defense. 


• Rudy Fernandez seemed to snap out of his slump as the game went on, finishing with 15 points and hitting three 3-pointers.


• Bayless and Batum had quiet games.  Bayless had 6 points (all on foul shots) and 3 assists in just 11 minutes.  Batum had 6 points in 16 minutes. 


• This was the kind of game the Blazers would have had no excuse for losing, even without Brandon.  But it was still nice to see them more or less control the game from the beginning.  It's a confidence booster for the team as they begin their stretch run.  I think the Blazers have enough talent to make the playoffs, even without Brandon Roy playing a major role, but for that to happen, they're going to take care of business, like they did tonight, against every losing team on the schedule.  There's very little margin for error.  

Some post-game thoughts (Thunder edition)

That was a painful game to watch . . .

• I'm not sure I've ever seen this team look more inept offensively.  24 turnovers.  3-20 from the three point line.  40% from the field.  No movement at all on offense.  LaMarcus Aldridge only attempting 10 shots.  Pathetic.


• The reason this game was so difficult to stomach was because the Blazers actually played pretty well defensively.  They out-rebounded the Thunder and held them to just 89 points.  With even a mediocre offensive game, this is a win.  On nights like this you really question the overall offensive strategy.  Why is it so hard to get the ball to our tallest player?  Why is no one moving without the ball on offense?  Why are no off-ball picks being set to free guys up for easier shots?  Why is no one cutting to the hoop?


• And while it's easy for me to sit here and play armchair coach, this is the sort of game that really leaves you scratching your head regarding the distribution of minutes and the lineups being used.  In particular, I thought Dante Cunningham was significantly under-utilized.  He was playing really well tonight, with 14 points and 6 rebounds in 21 minutes of play.  But Nate chose to sit him at the 10 minute mark of the 4th quarter and he never got back in the game.  Instead, Juwan Howard played, and contributed very little.  I could understand that decision against some teams, but not against OKC.  Cunningham can literally guard anyone on the Thunder, so there's no defensive reason to play Howard.  And Cunningham was hitting his shots and getting loose balls.  I don't think it's a complete coincidence that the Blazers faded as soon as he left the game.  


• Andre Miller had a decent game statistically, scoring 22 points and adding 6 assists and 6 rebounds.  He also had 4 big turnovers and missed some key shots down the stretch, but he was hardly the worst offender in that department.  More on that in a second.


• LaMarcus Aldridge tried really hard tonight.  He had 15 points, 15 rebounds, 4 assists, and 4 steals.  The main problem was that he only had 10 shot attempts.  He was defended well, but the Blazers have to do a better job of getting him the ball in a position to do something with it.  They need to run plays to free him up.  


• Nic Batum had a decent first half, scoring 12 points and playing his usual solid defense, but he completely disappeared in the second half.  


• Everyone else pretty much stunk up the joint.  Rudy Fernandez was 0-6 from three point land and finished with zero points.  Martell Webster was 1-4 from three point range, hitting his only shot on the last possession of the game when it didn't matter. Steve Blake went 0-5 from three point range and finished with zero points.  Jerryd Bayless played only 15 minutes and went 2-7.   If any of these guys had hit anything, the Blazers might well have won this game.  


• Before the game, I was suggesting that--at least against teams like OKC, who don't have a dominant center--McMillan should move Dante Cunningham into the starting lineup and move Aldridge over to the five.  I stand by that recommendation.  I think that's the lineup the Blazers should go with against Phoenix.  As much as a respect what Juwan Howard has done for the Blazers, Cunningham is playing better on both ends of the court right now and he should be getting more minutes than Howard.  I just hope the Blazers can find a way to gut out a win.  I know it's a tall order, but they really need a win going into the All Star break.  

Some post-game thoughts (Lakers edition)

This one pretty much sucked so I'll keep it brief...

• I guess the Lakers were bound to win in Portland eventually, but it's too bad it had to happen on a night where Kobe didn't play and Bynum left after 10 minutes.  This game was ripe for the taking and the Blazers just didn't show up, at least after the 1st quarter.  


• For about a quarter and a half, the Blazers' shots were falling.  Aldridge and Howard were hitting their mid-range shots.  Rudy and Batum each hit a couple threes, and it looked like the Blazers were poised to win the game going away.  But then everyone went cold, about as cold as I've ever seen them be collectively.  And no one seemed to have any idea how to even get a shot attempt in the paint.  The Blazers finished the game with only 22 points in the paint (compared to 48 for LA).  And a number of those came in scrub time.  


• That should be a real cause for concern for the Blazers.  With the talent on this team, they should be finding ways to get easier shots.  There needs to be more movement on offense, more off-ball picks and cuts to the hoop.  For long stretches of this game, the Blazers had one horrible possession after another where guys would pass the ball around the three point line only to settle for a contested perimeter jump shot just before the shot clock sounded. 


• It also didn't help that no one could get a rebound.  The Blazers had only two offensive rebounds the whole night and lost the overall battle on the boards 47 to 30.  Considering Andrew Bynum only played for 10 minutes (and pulled down only one rebound in that time), the Blazers really had no excuse.   They were just out-hustled.  Lamar Odom should not have 22 rebounds in a game.  Ever. 


• One thing that surprised me was McMillan's decision to play Jerryd Bayless so few minutes.  It's true that his outside shooting was off, but he was playing aggressively and no one else really was.  Bayless was the only guy even trying to get to the line (which he did for six free throws).  Everyone else was settling for jumpers.  


• The one bright spot tonight was Dante Cunningham, who had yet another solid game.  He had 8 points and 5 rebounds (plus a block, an assist, and a steal) in 21 minutes of play.  As usual, his defense was impressive.


• This was one of those games where the shots just weren't falling for anyone (at least after the 1st quarter), so I don't want to read too much into it.  But night's like this also show how dependent the Blazers are on guys hitting their perimeter shots.  When they're not going in, it can get ugly fast.