Some post-game thoughts (Lakers edition)

This one pretty much sucked so I'll keep it brief...

• I guess the Lakers were bound to win in Portland eventually, but it's too bad it had to happen on a night where Kobe didn't play and Bynum left after 10 minutes.  This game was ripe for the taking and the Blazers just didn't show up, at least after the 1st quarter.  


• For about a quarter and a half, the Blazers' shots were falling.  Aldridge and Howard were hitting their mid-range shots.  Rudy and Batum each hit a couple threes, and it looked like the Blazers were poised to win the game going away.  But then everyone went cold, about as cold as I've ever seen them be collectively.  And no one seemed to have any idea how to even get a shot attempt in the paint.  The Blazers finished the game with only 22 points in the paint (compared to 48 for LA).  And a number of those came in scrub time.  


• That should be a real cause for concern for the Blazers.  With the talent on this team, they should be finding ways to get easier shots.  There needs to be more movement on offense, more off-ball picks and cuts to the hoop.  For long stretches of this game, the Blazers had one horrible possession after another where guys would pass the ball around the three point line only to settle for a contested perimeter jump shot just before the shot clock sounded. 


• It also didn't help that no one could get a rebound.  The Blazers had only two offensive rebounds the whole night and lost the overall battle on the boards 47 to 30.  Considering Andrew Bynum only played for 10 minutes (and pulled down only one rebound in that time), the Blazers really had no excuse.   They were just out-hustled.  Lamar Odom should not have 22 rebounds in a game.  Ever. 


• One thing that surprised me was McMillan's decision to play Jerryd Bayless so few minutes.  It's true that his outside shooting was off, but he was playing aggressively and no one else really was.  Bayless was the only guy even trying to get to the line (which he did for six free throws).  Everyone else was settling for jumpers.  


• The one bright spot tonight was Dante Cunningham, who had yet another solid game.  He had 8 points and 5 rebounds (plus a block, an assist, and a steal) in 21 minutes of play.  As usual, his defense was impressive.


• This was one of those games where the shots just weren't falling for anyone (at least after the 1st quarter), so I don't want to read too much into it.  But night's like this also show how dependent the Blazers are on guys hitting their perimeter shots.  When they're not going in, it can get ugly fast.  

The Interchangables

In the Charlotte game last night, the Blazers played their best basketball in the 4th quarter, and they did it with an interesting lineup. As one would expect after a 52 point performance and a stellar month of January, Andre Miller was at point. But the only other starter on the floor was LaMarcus Aldridge, who was nominally playing center. The other three guys were Rudy Fernandez, Nicolas Batum, and Dante Cunningham. This lineup gave Charlotte all kinds of problems, on both ends of the floor.

On defense, both Batum and Cunningham have super long arms and excellent instincts. They are the two best help defenders on the team, and they are both quick enough and long enough to guard every position, at least in pinch. When you combine them with Aldridge (who is very agile for a big), Fernandez (who is very long for a guard), and Miller (who is very tough for a point guard), you get a group of five guys who are capable of playing a true zone and/or switching on every pick. This is as interchangeable a group of guys as you will find in the NBA.

Against a lineup like that -- as Charlotte found out last night -- it is very hard to run a pick and roll or free guys up through screens. The defense just switches or rotates. It's hard to create mismatches. Even Miller, the shortest guy on the court, does pretty well when temporarily switched on to bigs. He probably prefers that to chasing around speedy point guards. And the collective wing span of the rest of this group is incredible, making it very difficult to make clean passes or get uncontested shots off.

On offense, this is a potent lineup as well. Miller, the best lob passer in the league, is surrounded by long, quick guys who can finish at the hoop. He can hit them with outlet passes for easy buckets in transition or feed them as they cut to the hoop in half court sets. Batum and Aldridge were the recipients of a number of such assists last night.

Moreover, it's not just this group that is capable of playing like this. Brandon Roy, Martell Webster, and (when healthy) Travis Outlaw all fit this mold and can be plugged in easily. In other words, there are a number of combinations of personnel that can create the same effect and allow for the same style of play. The key is having Aldridge move over to the five and having only one of the point guards in the game at a time. Essentially the lineup looks like this:

1: Miller, Bayless, or Blake
2-3: two of Roy, Fernandez, Batum, or Webster
4: Cunningham, Batum, or Outlaw
5: Aldridge

I'm not saying the Blazers should exclusively utilize this sort of lineup, but I'd like to see them use it, at minimum, half the game, at least until we have a true center back on the active roster. The reason I like this sort of lineup is because its length and interchangeability compensates for the Blazers' lack of size in the low post. This lineup has the potential to be defensively suffocating and offensively explosive.

Though we're lacking in bigs, the Blazers have an abundance of talent at the wing positions and they should try to take advantage of it. Versality can be a power weapon in the NBA.

Some post-game thoughts (Bobcats edition)

I had forgotten what scrub time looked like . . .

• The was a great win for the Blazers.  Charlotte is a good team and they've been playing inspired ball on this road trip.  And the Blazers handled them, leading from start to finish and holding them to just 79 points.  Patty Mills even got some run. 


• My respect for Andre Miller keeps growing.  A game after exploding for a career-high 52 points, Dre did not even attempt a field goal until late in the 2nd quarter.  He was content to pass first, racking up 6 assists in the first half and 10 total.  How many other basketball players would have the self-restraint to do that? How many wouldn't come out gunning?  Miller is a fascinating player.


• Perhaps the most interesting subplot of tonight's game was the lineup the Blazers used to make their final push in the 4th quarter.  McMillan went with Miller, Fernandez, Batum, Cunningham, and Aldridge.  Those guys (with the exception of Miller) are long and aggressive.  They gave the Bobcats all kinds of problems on both ends of the court, but especially on the defensive end.  They were switching on almost every pick and it didn't really matter.  Batum and Cunningham especially are capable of guarding just about anyone.  The Bobcats had all kinds of trouble executing the pick and roll against that lineup.   


• Nicolas Batum had a brilliant game, scoring 15 points and pulling down a career-high 9 rebounds.  As usually, he was a force on the defensive end, finishing the game with a team high plus/minus of +21.  Of note, Batum seemed to play his best offensively when on the floor with Miller.  Batum covers a lot of ground and can finish well near the hoop.  He's the perfect recipient of Miller's interior passing.  


• Dante Cunningham also had a brilliant game, probably his best as a Blazer.  He had 10 points, 4 rebounds, and 2 blocks in 31 minutes of play (which has to be the most he's played in one game).  A lot of what he did doesn't show up in the box score.  He was a defensive menace, guarding Gerald Wallace much of his time on the court (Wallace finished with just 17 points).  Cunningham finished with a plus/minus of +19.  He is playing MUCH better than Pendergraph or Howard at the moment and is going to end up taking their minutes.  If I were Nate, I would seriously consider starting him and shifting Aldridge to the five.  


• In a testament to the current logjam of Blazer perimeter players, Jerryd Bayless was having a solid game and still didn't see the court after the 3rd quarter.  He finished with 15 points in 21 minutes.  


• The same was true of Martell Webster.  He wasn't lighting the world on fire, but he had 10 points in 23 minutes and was fairly aggressive.  But he saw his last minutes halfway through the 3rd quarter.  


• Steve Blake played only 17 minutes.  When Roy comes back, there is going to be a severe minute crunch.  Unless someone gets traded...


• Larmarcus Aldridge had an average LMA game: 17 points, 8 rebounds.  He was fairly efficient, though, going 8-13 from the field.  


• What's fascinating about the current Roy-less squad is that, other than Miller, the guys who are playing the best ball are all coming off the bench.  It's just a matter of time before Nate shakes up the starting lineup.  The most obvious move is to insert Nic Batum into the lineup, likely at Martell's expense.  If I were Nate, though, I might get a little more creative.  I'd seriously consider inserting Batum at the 2-spot (instead of Bayless).  I would have Bayless backup Miller at the point.  I'd also consider inserting Cunningham into the starting lineup in place of Howard (and shifting Lamarcus to center).  

Thoughts on Dre Day

Rather than commenting in the moment, I thought I'd sleep on it and reflect a bit. Even with a day's reflection, though, Andre Miller's offensive explosion against Dallas is just as inexplicable. He shattered his career high of 37 points, a mark he set way back in 2003. He scored his 52 while making only one three pointer. And though he added 7 points in overtime, he only played 42 minutes total. He also did it on the second night of a back-to-back. Quite simply, this was one of the more improbable 50 point games in the history of the NBA. And what makes it so much better is that the Blazers literally needed every one of those points to pull out the win, a win they desperately needed. It was one of the most satisfying and entertaining basketball games I've ever had the pleasure of watching.

Lost amid the superlatives rightfully directed at Miller is the fantastic play of several other guys last night. Nicolas Batum didn't do much on offense, but his defensive play, especially at the end of the game, was sensational. Guarding the much bigger Dirk Nowitzki, he played about as well as anyone could, forcing Nowitzki to take tough contested shots and then pulling down three crucial rebounds off the misses.

Jerryd Bayless also played well. He was aggressive and had 17 points in 29 minutes. He finished with a team high plus/minus of +20. He also made a fantastic transition lob alley-oop pass to Aldridge in the 2nd quarter.

One other player that deserves a mention is Dante Cunningham. He only played 13 minutes, but in those minutes I thought he played really well. He had only 1 point and 1 rebound, but he had 2 blocks and looked great on the defensive end. The more I watch this kid play, the more convinced I am that, if nothing else, he will carve out a niche for himself in the NBA as a defensive specialist.

The most remarkable stat of the night is that the jump-shooting Blazers managed to score a whopping 60 points in the paint. That's a testament not only to Portland's aggressiveness, but also Dallas' complete inability to stop dribble penetration. Miller owned them in the paint, scoring 8 field goals at the rim and another 3 from within 10 feet. Bayless added 3 field goals at the rim and 1 from within 10 feet. The Blazers are the worst team in the league at scoring in the paint, so these are pretty amazing numbers.

As improbable as it was, this win was an enormously important one for the Blazers. The very real possibility of a six or seven game losing streak was looming. This win will, at the very least, serve as a jolt of confidence to a beleaguered team. Dallas is a very good team and one that has won just about every close game they've been in this season. To go into Dallas without your best player on the second night of a back-to-back and to win, in overtime, is just so huge.

Just How High Is Batum's Ceiling?

Most fans of NBA teams have a tendency to over-rate their own young talent.  Blazer fans are certainly no exception (indeed, we're often the worst offenders).  Whenever a rookie has a good game, we can't help but imagine how good they'll be once they reach their "ceiling" as a player. And that ceiling is inevitably somewhere between All Star and Hall of Famer.

I always try to keep that tendency under control. But sometimes I just can't help myself.

Last year four very promising rookies made their debuts for the Blazers: Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, and Nicolas Batum. Batum was easily the least heralded of the four going into the season. But by the end of the season, I know I wasn't alone in thinking that Batum might have the highest ceiling of the four. In his rookie year, at the age of 19, Batum started for the Blazers and quickly established himself as the best perimeter defender on the team and an immediate "glue" guy. Batum just seemed to have an intuitive feel for where to be on defense, and his long arms and abundant athleticism allowed him to cover a lot of ground. On offense, Batum was content to take a back seat to his teammates, but he still showed flashes of potential. He shot a respectable 37% from three point range and would occasionally explode off the baseline for a dunk or sprint down the court for a easy bucket in transition.

Suffice it to say, a guy with just those skills -- and nothing more -- can be a valuable contributor in this league. Think Shane Battier or Trevor Ariza.

But over the summer, Batum started to show another side to his game. Playing for the French national team, he was asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. And he delivered, leading his team to a number of big wins over tough competition. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury sidelined him for the first half of this season. But he's back now, and the Batum who returned two games ago looks much more confident and aggressive than the Batum of last season.

Batum's PER is currently 28.98. That's obviously not going to hold up, but it does how how productive he's been so far. And the most tantalizing part of it is the way he's scored. Instead of just hitting threes, he's scored off the dribble. He's attacked the rim and scored with pretty finger rolls. He's taken pull up jumpers off the dribble.  In short, he's looked a lot like Travis Outlaw -- on a good night.

If Batum can combine Travis Outlaw's offensive repertoire with a Battier-esque defensive skill-set -- which does not seem far-fetched -- he will become one of the best small forwards in the league. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, of course, but it's hard not to get excited when you see a 20 year old already displaying this kind of feel for the game.

I think Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden all have the potential to become very good NBA players, maybe even All Stars in the best case scenario. But if they never become much more than they are now, that also wouldn't surprise me. But Batum is different. I feel virtually certain that, barring injury, Batum will continue to improve and will have a very successful NBA career. I think his floor is a solid starter. His ceiling is as high as anyone his age in the league. We'd be nuts to trade him. 

Bayless was absolutely the right guy to take the final shot last night

In the aftermath of last night's tough loss to New Orleans, I've heard a number of people today questioning the decision to allow Jerryd Bayless to take the final shot (see here, for example). I couldn't disagree more.

There were only three seconds left in the game on that final possession. Obviously if Roy were available, he'd be the guy taking that final shot. But Roy wasn't available. In his absence, I think Nate McMillan was smart to give the ball to Jerryd Bayless. Here's why.

While there are a number of guys on the team who are, at least at this point, more consistent perimeter shooters than Bayless (i.e., Fernandez, Webster, Blake, and even Aldridge), those players generally do not take shots off the dribble. Most of their perimeter shots come off passes from teammates. Indeed, when those players try to shoot off the dribble, the results are often dodgy.

Bayless on the other hand, takes most of his shots off the dribble, and while I don't have access to Synergy data, my guess is that he shoots a higher percentage on such shots than anyone else on the team save Roy. With only a few seconds left, you want the ball to be in the hands of someone who can, if necessary, take a good shot off the dribble. Everyone else should just try to get open.

Considering the Blazers only had three seconds to work with, Bayless actually got off a pretty good looking shot. It was mid-range and very makable. He'll probably make that shot 50% of the time. He could have dished it to Martell in the corner for a three, but the Blazers only needed two points and there's really no reason to believe Martell's shot would have had a higher percentage chance of going in. Plus, whenever you pass in that situation, with so little time, you add to the equation the chance of a miscue that results in no shot being taken at all.

If the Blazers had a little more time, say ten seconds, they could have tried to run a play to set one of the shooters free, knowing that if it didn't work, there would still be time for the ball-handler to take a shot. But with only three seconds, the highest percentage play is to give the ball to the guy who is best able to shoot off the dribble and let him try to create something. That's what McMillan did, and I think it was the right call.

UPDATE: Okay, I see Ben Golliver agrees with me.

Some post-game thoughts (Pistons edition)

What a big win . . .

• The short-handed Blazers, on the second night of a back-to-back, had just enough left in the tank tonight to gut out a victory over the Pistons and come away a respectable 2-2 on this roadtrip. With the murderer's row of games ahead on the schedule, the Blazers really, really needed this one. 


• It was really a tale of two halves tonight.  In the first, the Blazers played some of the best team basketball they have all season.  And the Pistons played terrible defense.  The Blazers were up by 14 at the half, thanks in large part to the wide open threes that Martell Webster was getting.  In the second half, the Pistons decided they were going to play defense and suddenly looked like a completely different team.  The easy shots were gone and the Blazers stalled out offensively.  Luckily, they found ways to manufacture points and eeked out a victory.  


• The Blazers were carried on offense, especially in the first half, by Webster, who had a career high 28 points and 6 three pointers.  He also pulled down 7 boards and hit two clutch foul shots at the end.  Oh, and he played the entire 48 minutes without rest.  


• With both Roy and Bayless out, Andre Miller and Steve Blake started together.  And they put on an assist clinic, especially in the first half.   Miller finished with 13 assists and Blake with 10.  They each had 11 points.  


• Aldridge had a typical Aldridge night, scoring 21 points and pulling down 8 rebounds. 


• The only other contributor on offense tonight was Rudy Fernandez, who finished with 19 points in 21 minutes.  Ten of those points came on foul shots during a bizarre stretch in the 3rd quarter that began with Rudy being the recipient of a flagrant foul that almost triggered a brawl.  In the aftermath of that skirmish, the refs tried to get things under control by blowing their whistle on any contact.  Rudy capitalized by drawing four additional fouls and sinking 8 more foul shots.  Rudy was a bit uneven the rest of the time, but he did have a few pretty shots, including a driving layup, a floater, and a three.  


• Jeff Pendergraph got the surprise start tonight over Juwan Howard, likely because McMillan thought he'd match up better against Ben Wallace.  He only ended up playing 17 minutes, though, and none during crunch time.  It appeared that he made a few defensive lapses early that angered McMillan, so Howard ended up playing big minutes.  


• A bit out of character, the Blazers scored 18 fast break points tonight.  I'll bet that's the most they've scored all season.  The fact that Miller was running the offense all night probably explains that.  


• Overall, this was a great win for the Blazers.  They got into Detroit last night in the middle of the night after losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Boston.  They were all running on fumes and they were down another man.  They could very easily have gotten blown out.  But they showed up ready to compete, they played a superb first half, and when the Pistons made a run in the second half, they somehow managed to dig deep and find the energy to hold them off.  You can't help but be proud of these guys.  They deserve all the respect in the world.