Regression to the Mean

We Blazer fans tend to live in the moment. When the Blazers are winning, we find reasons to ignore even obvious problems, and when they've lost a few games in row, we enter full-on panic mode. In the last two games, the Blazers have looked really bad, worse than they have in a long time, and so it's understandable that many fans (myself included) are feeling a growing sense of unease.

So what's the matter? What explains these back-to-back blowout losses (including one at the hands of Memphis in the Rose Garden)? Let me start with a (somewhat) reassuring answer. I think, to a large extent, these games can be explained by the basic statistical phenomenon known as regression to the mean. Over the long haul, basketball is a game of skill. But from game to game, chance plays a much bigger factor than we fans (and even most analysts and commentators) tend to acknowledge. The primary way in which chance manifests itself in a basketball game is in shooting percentage. Over the long run, shooting percentages are determined by shooting skill and quality of defense. But the reality is that, in any single game, chance plays a big role. Even great shooting teams occasionally go cold and even poor shooting teams have hot nights. No matter what the quality of defense, in any given game, both teams are going to take a decent number of open jump shots, and the percentage of those shots that go in will fluctuate. On most nights, the number that go in will be at or near a team's typical shooting percentage. But there will always be statistical outliers. There will be nights where nearly everything goes in and nights where seemingly nothing does.

During the decisive stretch of the Memphis game, Memphis went on an absurd 30-2 run. There's no question that Memphis outplayed Portland in all aspects of the game during that stretch, but the scoring differential was magnified by fluky shooting on both sides. Memphis hit nearly every perimeter shot, including a number of long threes by Jamaal Tinsley of all people. Portland, on the other hand, could not hit anything. Shots that would normally fall all missed. When a team is hot from outside, it opens up the floor and makes it much easier to score inside. Conversely, when a team is cold from outside, the defense cheats back and cuts off easy entry to the interior. Thus, when one team goes ice cold at the same time another gets red hot, you end up with something like what happened in the first half of the Memphis game. It's rare, but it happens.

The Utah game was very similar in that, for long stretches of the game, the Jazz simply did not miss from the perimeter. There's no question that the Blazers gave up far too many open jumpers from the foul line area, but on most nights, even very good teams miss a lot of those shots.

In other words, putting defensive effort to one side, the Blazers confronted teams on two straight nights that were knocking down jump shots at a statistically unsustainable rate. I'm not saying that was the only thing going on. Clearly the Blazers weren't on their game offensively or defensively. But take away the fluky shooting and you probably have a narrow win against Memphis and a non blow-out loss at Utah. That's not great, but it wouldn't cause anyone to panic either.

Moreover, this was bound to happen sooner or later. So far this season, the Blazers have benefited from a number of fluky shooting performances by their opponents, games where normally good shooters were missing wide open shots all game long (remember that game against Oklahoma City?). At some point, that luck was going to turn. Regression to the mean was inevitable.

The reality is that the Blazers defense isn't as bad as it looked against Memphis and Utah and it isn't as good as it looked in a number of the games earlier this season.

The key is not to over-correct. The Blazers have been playing a defensive scheme that focuses on denying interior shots while ceding perimeter shots. Up until the last two games, this strategy has served them fairly well. If they now over-correct and try too hard to contest all perimeter shots, they're going to leave too much room in the middle and teams will burn them, likely resulting in easy hoops and/or foul trouble for Portland's bigs.

In all honesty, though, I'm not terribly concerned about the Blazers' defense. I think they've generally been playing improved team defense this season and that, over the course of the full season, their current scheme--with a tweak here and there--will serve them adequately.

I'm much more concerned about the offense. Last year's team had the most efficient offense in the league. This year's offense has not yet come anywhere close to that level, and it's not obvious (to me at least) just what the problem is. In terms of production, Greg Oden is supplying much more from the center position than the Blazers got last year, and Nic Batum was not much of a factor on offense, so his loss does not explain the drop off in offensive production. LaMarcus Aldridge's production is slightly down from last season, but not by much. That leaves Blake, Roy and the bench. Both Blake and Roy are scoring 4 less points per 48 minutes than they did last season, which is significant given the number of minutes they each play. Rudy Fernandez's scoring per 48 is slightly down (but not much) and obviously the loss of Travis Outlaw hurts (though the Blazers' offensive efficiency was significantly down even before his injury).

Though this is purely conjecture on my part, I suspect that one factor at work here is the moving of Joel Przybilla to the bench. As a starter, Przybilla's offensive limitations were better masked as he played alongside the team's best scorers. Now that he's on the second team, his lack of contribution on offense is more pronounced. I'm not suggesting that Przybilla should start (Oden deserves that job), but I think Nate McMillan needs to manage Oden's minutes a little less conservatively and structure his rotation so as minimize (hopefully to zero) the amount of time Oden and Aldridge are on the bench simultaneously.

One final thought. When Oden stands near the foul line on offense, his defender ALWAYS drops back toward the basket and cedes the shot. Yet Oden never takes it. Given that Oden is converting nearly 80% of his free throws, I see no reason why he can't consistently hit an open shot from that range during the game. If Oden starts taking and hitting those shots, it would instantly open up the floor for the rest of his teammates. The dividends would be immediate. I know Oden works on this shot in practice, but I'd really like him to try a few more of them in game situations. If he can add that element to his game, look out.