What's the Difference Between Derrick Rose and Jerryd Bayless?

Could the answer be as simple as playing time?

I realize this sounds like out-of-control homerism and that Bulls fans, if any are reading this, are probably ready to spit on the screen, but indulge me for a moment.

I'm not suggesting that Jerryd Bayless has accomplished anything close to what Derrick Rose has accomplished during their brief time in the NBA. I'm not suggesting that any GM in the league would consider the two players to be of equal value at the moment. Bayless--to put it mildly--is an unproven commodity. Rose is not. While we may not yet know either of their ceilings as players, we do know Rose's floor, and it's considerably higher than Bayless's.

With that disclaimer out of the way, let's compare these two second year players, starting with the obvious: Bayless and Rose are very similar physically. Bayless is 6'3'', 200 pounds; Rose is 6'3'', 190 pounds. Coming into college, Rose and Bayless were considered comparable recruits. Both were on most top ten lists. The RSCI ranked Rose as the 5th best talent in the class of 2007 and Bayless as the 7th best.  Their paths started diverging, however, in their first (and only) year of college.  

Rose went to Memphis, where he joined an incredibly talented and well-coached supporting cast. Memphis, at the time, was a well-oiled machine. Bayless, on the other hand, went to Arizona, where he found himself in a program in complete disarray. Soon after his arrival, his coach, Lute Olson, suffered an undiagnosed stroke that caused him to act out in bizarre and unpredictable ways. No one knew what was the matter with him.   He was eventually forced to take a leave of absence mid-season, leaving the team in the hands of an assistant.  When the year was over, both Rose and Bayless entered the draft. Rose was the #1 overall pick;  Bayless was selected #11.  

As the #1 pick, Rose was given immediate and sustained playing time his rookie season.  And he made the most of it, showcasing his superb ability to get to the rim and eventually winning Rookie of the Year honors.  Bayless' first opportunity to showcase his talents was in the Vegas Summer League, where he won MVP honors, averaging 29.8 points, 4.8 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per game.  Like Rose, he demonstrated an impressive ability to get to the rim and score.  Once the regular season started, however, Bayless found himself buried on one of the league's deepest rosters.  He was the fifth guard in the Blazer rotation.  Bayless got some run, but it was inconsistent and often limited to scrub time.  In those brief stretches he often seemed nervous, like someone who was pushing too hard to prove himself worthy of being on the court.  On the rare occasions where he got sustained playing time, however, such as a brief stretch of games mid-season when Steve Blake was injured, Bayless showed real promise.  In one of those games, he scored a career high 23 points in just 25 minutes, and looked good doing it.    

Even at his best, though, Bayless' game has been rather one-dimensional.  While his ability to get to the rim is impressive, he has not yet demonstrated any real court vision or distributive ability.  And while he was a good shooter in college (over 40% from 3 point range), he has not yet proven himself to be a good shooter in the NBA.  In his spot playing time his rookie season, he shot just 36% from the floor and 26% from 3 point range.  Bayless' true shooting percentage (which factors in three pointers and foul shots) was slightly more respectable at 48.7%, aided enormously by his ability to get to the line and make free throws (Bayless had the 5th best free-throw rate among point guards).  One other bright spot for Bayless was his defense.  Though he had a high foul rate, McMillan often brought him in for stretches to play defense when Steve Blake and Sergio Rodriguez were having trouble containing the other team's point guard.  

Despite Derrick Rose's many accomplishments in his rookie season, he too was rather one-dimensional.  Like Bayless, he did most of his scoring driving to the hoop. Rose managed to make only 21% of his 3s.  And though he converted a decent 43% of his long 2s, his true shooting percentage was only 51.6%, not much better than Bayless's. His true shooting percentage would have been higher if he had gotten to the foul line more often, but as John Hollinger notes, Rose's "free-throw rate ...was well below the league average for point guards and shockingly minuscule given how often he drove to the basket."

Though billed as a true point guard, Rose has--at least to this point in his short career--distinguished himself primarily as a scorer.  To quote Hollinger once again:

[Rose] doesn't see the floor well, ranking only 42nd among point guards in assist ratio, and when he drives, it's usually to score rather than to pass. He also had a near-comic reluctance to throw alley-oop passes despite the long, athletic finishers in his frontcourt 

As for defense, Rose has generally gotten poor marks as a defender.  Hollinger describes Rose's defense as "horrific."  

Though it is still early in the 2009-2010 season, Rose's number are down across the board.  His true shooting percentage is below 50% and his PER is 14.32 (down from 16.05 his rookie year).  Bayless, on the other hand, while still seeing only spot playing time, has much better numbers than his rookie season. His true shooting percentage his up to 57.1% and his PER is now 15.50. Whether Bayless can sustain or improve upon these number if given more playing time is, of course, an open question, but so far at least, he has performed better when allowed to play for longer stretches.

My point in drawing these comparisons is not to suggest that Bayless is or will be a star in the NBA or that Derrick Rose isn't or won't be. Rather, I think it's possible that differences in playing time have led to a situation where two players of comparable current skill-level and potential (and with very similar strengths and weaknesses) have wildly divergent perceived values.  One has been given the opportunity to prove himself and the other really hasn't. Until Bayless is actually given the opportunity to play significant minutes over a sustained period of time, this will remain an academic debate, but at some point, whether on the Blazers or elsewhere, Bayless is going to get that chance, and we'll finally be able to do an apples to apples comparison.

My own personal belief--for which I know I'm inviting mockery and scorn--is that Bayless may well turn out to be the better NBA player. I think Bayless has more potential as a defender, and that he'll eventually be able to shoot from long range with consistency. I think Rose will have to work much harder to improve his game in both of those areas. Bayless is also better at drawing contact and getting to the line. If Rose has a clear edge over Bayless, it's in his distributive abilities. Though he has a long way to go to prove himself a true point guard, I can at least see him eventually becoming one. I don't think Bayless will ever be a true point guard. He'll likely end up as a sixth man combo guard, a designated scorer in the mold of Nate Robinson (only bigger and more dangerous). This may well be Rose's final destination as well. Much will depend on whether he can improve his skills as a passer and facilitator.

It will be interesting to look back on these two players in 10 years and see what they've accomplished. My hunch is that the difference won't be nearly as stark as it is today.