The Great Point Guard Debate of 2010

By now you've probably seen this post by Ben over at Blazersedge in which he makes a compelling statistical case for something a lot of us have been thinking, that Jerryd Bayless deserves more playing time. By just about every offensive metric, Bayless is outplaying both Steve Blake and Andre Miller. It's not even all that close. Bayless has, of course, played many fewer minutes than Blake or Miller, so it remains to be seen whether he can maintain a similar level of production if his playing time increases. That said, I completely agree with Ben that Bayless has shown enough to this point to warrant getting more playing time. When someone is producing on the offensive end at the level Bayless has been, especially when the players ahead of him in the rotation are struggling and the team's overall offensive game is hurting, you give that person more minutes.

The same Synergy data shows something else interesting, though. It shows that, among the Blazers' three point guards, Steve Blake rates as the best defender, getting "excellent" ratings in a number of key metrics. The conventional wisdom among Blazer fans is that Steve Blake is a terrible defender. The coaching staff clearly feels otherwise, however, and it looks like the data supports them. I've long though that Blake's reputation among Portland fans as a bad defender was undeserved. It's certainly true that speedy point guards like Aaron Brooks have given the Blazers fits over the years, but blaming that on Blake's defense isn't fair. In the post hand-check era, there isn't anyone in the league (with the possible exception of Rajon Rondo) who can stay in front of the league's speediest point guards.  Aaron Brooks couldn't guard Aaron Brooks.  So  expecting Blake to stay in front of guys like that is completely unrealistic. Defending those kind of guards requires a good defensive scheme and timely help from other guys.

In terms of the things you can realistically expect your point guard to do on defense (i.e. get around picks, contest perimeter shots, provide timely help, rotate to the right spots, etc.) Steve Blake does a great job. He's a smart player who knows where to be and what to do on defense and he consistently puts in the effort. Blake's principal limitations as a point guard are not defensive, they're offensive. His strengths on offense are that he can generally hit open threes at a decent clip and he makes few turnovers in half court situations. His passing and court vision are average. But other than that, the picture isn't pretty. Blake is terrible at dribble penetration and when he does get into the lane or get free along the baseline, he tends to jump into the air and not know what to do with the ball, often resulting in a block or an errant pass. He also has real trouble in transition. On the rare occasions when he finds himself involved in a fast break, he doesn't seem to know where to be or when to make the pass, all too often resulting in a turnover. Blake has little, if any, mid-range game and while he's a good foul shooter, he doesn't draw very many fouls.

Ironically, both Jerryd Bayless and Andre Miller have essentially the exact opposite skill set. Both are excellent dribble penetrators who are adept at finishing around the basket and drawing fouls. Both are very good in transition. And both have trouble converting long range jump shots. Where Miller has a pronounced advantage over both Bayless and Blake is in his court vision and passing ability. Though he hasn't had much of an opportunity to demonstrate it yet in Portland, Miller is one of the league's better passers. Miller is also a better team defender at this point than Bayless. Like Blake, he's a smart, experienced player who know where to be and when to rotate and help.

So that's the conundrum for the Blazers. They have three point guards, none of whom offers a complete package. My personal opinion, for what it's worth, is that Steve Blake just doesn't offer enough on the offensive end to justify the minutes he's been getting. If the team was stacked with offensive weapons at every other position, Blake might be a sufficient complementary player. But that's not the case, especially with Oden out. The Blazers desperately need more offensive production from the point guard position and both Miller and Bayless bring much more to the table in the offensive department than Blake. Either Miller or Bayless needs to start, and Blake's minutes need to be reduced to the 20-25 range, at most.

If I were running the team, I would seriously consider--at least while Rudy is out--moving Bayless into a Batum-like starting role, i.e., someone who starts, but generally only plays 20-25 minutes. With the offense at the beginning of the game running primarily through Roy and Aldridge, you don't really need an experienced point guard out there. Bayless would be the third scoring option. Starting would give Bayless valuable experience guarding the league's starting point guards and playing alongside Roy. If he's going to be the point guard of the future, this would be a good test. I think Bayless may surprise a lot of people if given that kind of an opportunity.