The Loss of Oden

Watching Oden collapse in obvious pain last night was a sickening moment.  As he was lying on the court, I could tell that his kneecap was out of place.  I knew that his season was--in all likelihood--done.  As a sports fan, I've experienced moments like that before, when a key guy goes down and you know that the season has just dramatically changed.  But this time was different.  This time, I wasn't thinking about the team.  All I could think about was how bad I felt for Greg Oden, the human being.  I thought of how hard he had worked to recover from his last injury and how long it had taken him.  I remembered how happy he had looked over the last few weeks, as his hard work had finally started to payoff in the form of a string of impressive performances on the court. And then I thought about the long and difficult road that now lay ahead of him, just to get back to where he was a moment earlier, before his knee had failed him.  

And as I thought about those things, I started to well up.  I just felt so bad for Greg.  It wasn't until much later in the evening that I really started thinking about how the injury would impact the Blazers' season.  I know I'm not alone in that regard.  It's really, more than anything else, a testament to Greg's character.  Putting aside his value to the team, Greg Oden is one of the most likable human beings ever to wear a Blazer uniform.  He's earnest, hard-working, humble, funny, and above all, genuine.  It's impossible not to like the guy.

And that's why, regardless of what happens in the future, I will always root for Greg Oden.  I would root for him even if he were traded to a team I hate.

With that said, a few words on the state of the team.  Without Oden, Joel Przybilla will no doubt be elevated to the starting lineup, making it look much like last year's starting lineup (but with Webster in the place of Batum).  While, in principle, there's no reason that lineup can't win at a pace similar to last year, I think that's unlikely.  First, without Outlaw and Oden (and Fernandez for now), our bench is much thinner.  Second, and probably more significantly, I think both Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla had career years last year and are unlikely to achieve similar production.  Ultimately, I think Nate McMillan will be forced to do what he has, up to this point, been reluctant to do: make Andre Miller the starting and principal point guard.  Miller demonstrated yet again last night (as he carried the team in the third quarter) that he is a far more talented player than Steve Blake.  

Prior to Oden's injury there were rumors swirling that the Blazers were considering trading Andre Miller for a forward.  I think that's less likely now.  While the Blazers are now in even greater need of a big, the uncertainty surrounding Rudy's health and the Blazers general lack of warm bodies makes it difficult to justify trading away someone as talented and dependable as Miller.  I have no doubt that Kevin Pritchard will be working the phones over the next few weeks, trying to see what's available, but my guess is that he'll first try to swing a deal involving non-active players.  The most likely trading chip is Travis Outlaw's expiring contract, which could be paired with a draft pick or an overseas player (such as Victor Claver or Joel Freeland) in exchange for a player who could contribute now.  I suspect calls have already been made to Orlando to see if they might be willing to part with Brandon Bass in such a deal. 

With Jeff Pendergraph likely returning to the active roster in a month or so, however, Portland isn't quite at the point where a move is necessary. We're about an injury away from that point, but we're not there yet. So management may well decide to ride things out, see how the team responds, and wait till closer to the trade deadline to decide whether a move should be made. That's probably the right call.

One thing that's certain is that guys who looked like they probably wouldn't be getting much playing time this year are going to get a lot of it over the next few weeks. I'm interested to see, in particular, how Jerryd Bayless and Dante Cunningham respond to the challenge.