Trade Scenarios

[updated below]

The news of the day, as reported by Adrian Wojnarowski, is that the Blazers are supposedly shopping Andre Miller and hope to get an "athletic forward" in return. I'm not sure how seriously to take this reporting, but it's certainly plausible. Personally, I'd really like to see Miller given a chance to start and be the primary point guard before deciding that the experiment has failed, but I'm just some random guy on the internets, so I don't have much of a say in the matter.

I do enjoy speculating about trades, though, so I thought I'd use this rumor as a jumping off point for speculating (recklessly) about various Miller trade scenarios. Here are five such scenarios, some more plausible than others.

Scenario #1 (Miami): Portland sends Miller to Miami in exchange for Mario Chalmers (PG) and James Jones (SF). Miami wants to immediately contend for a title next year when they plan to field a re-signed Dwyane Wade and another max free agent (likely Chris Bosh). Chalmers is their current starting point guard, but while he has potential, he isn't quite ready for prime time. Miller is. In exchange for Miller, the Blazers would get a young point guard who can shoot threes and defend, as well as a small forward who can shoot threes and fill-in for the injured Batum and Outlaw. This isn't a great trade for Portland, but it may end up being the best offer they get. I think Miami would do it. [update: just realized that James Jones' contract is non-guaranteed for 2010-11.  That makes this deal far less plausible.  If it did this, Miami would be taking on $6.7 million in salary obligations for 2010-11 that it doesn't currently have.  Given it's desire to be a major player in the free agent market, Miami probably wouldn't want to do this.]

Scenario #2 (Lakers): Portland sends Miller to the Lakers for Luke Walton (SF) and Jordan Farmer (PG) and a draft pick. The Lakers would get a clear upgrade at point guard. The Blazers would get a small forward who can pass and a backup point guard. I think the Lakers would do this trade in a heartbeat, but I doubt Portland would. The Blazers don't get much talent in return and wouldn't want to make a conference rival even better.

Scenario #3 (Memphis): Portland sends Miller and Travis Outlaw (expiring contract) to Memphis for Rudy Gay (SF) and Marko Jaric's ugly contract. Portland gets its athletic small forward and a guy who can score. Memphis gets a veteran leader at point guard and gets out of its worst contract (Jaric's $7 million). I think Portland would do this trade, but Memphis probably wouldn't. Then again, Memphis' ownership has done some strange things in the past, and they don't seem terribly interested in keeping Gay next year, so you never know.

Scenario #4 (Charlotte): Portland sends Miller, Outlaw, and change (probably a draft pick or rookie/prospect) to Charlotte for Boris Diaw. The Blazers get an unselfish "point forward," much like Hedo Turkoglu, who they coveted during the off-season. Charlotte gets cap relief, an upgrade at point guard, and a prospect. Charlotte probably doesn't go for this, but then again, you never know.

Scenario #5 (Orlando): Portland sends Miller to Orlando for Brandon Bass (PF) and Anthony Johnson (PG). Orlando gets either a starting or backup point guard (depending on Jameer Nelson's prognosis/recovery) and Portland gets an athletic power forward who is currently getting DNPs for Orlando. Orlando probably doesn't go for this unless Nelson's recovery is taking longer than expected.

Personally, I find scenarios #3 and #4 the most interesting, though probably the least plausible. Scenario #2 would be a bad trade for Portland. Scenarios #1 and #5 are probably the most realistic, but if that's all that we can get for Miller, I think I'd prefer keeping him.