Some post-game thoughts (Clippers edition)

And another one bites the dust...

• Tonight the Blazers lost yet another big man to injury as Lamarcus Aldridge left the game in the 1st quarter with a sprained ankle.  No word yet on how bad it is.  Somehow, though, the Blazers always seem to find a way to step it up when someone goes down.  And they did it again tonight, gutting out a win against a Clipper team that just beat the Celtics a few days ago.


• As usual, the Blazers were carried by Brandon Roy, who finished the night with 27 points, 7 boards, and 6 assists.  And as usual, most of Brandon's scoring came in the second half, including a jumper with less than a minute left that essentially sealed the game.  


• The Blazers would not have won tonight, however, if other folks had not stepped up and had career games.  In particular, Jeff Pendergraph played some inspired minutes at center, scoring 8 points, nabbing 14 rebounds (a career high) and blocking 2 shots in 25 minutes of play.  This was easily the best game in his short career, and a really promising sign of things to come.


• Dante Cunningham also had a fantastic night.  His stat line wasn't as impressive (8 points, 3 boards, 1 block in 27 minutes), but he played some fantastic defense, repeatedly forcing his man to take difficult, contested shots.  He was playing such good defense that Nate left him in to close the game (playing in place of Aldridge).  In one sequence in particular, Cunningham twice cut off a drive to the baseline, forced a pass, and then left to help another defender, forcing a turnover.  The Clippers announcers (who I happened to be watching via League Pass tonight) were impressed by Dante's defensive effort and repeatedly praised him.  


• The winner of the point guard derby tonight was Jerryd Bayless.  Bayless brought a lot of energy and looked like a real point guard out there.  He finished with 14 points, 8 assists, 2 rebounds, and a steal, and was rewarded by being allowed to finish both halves.  His shooting numbers weren't particularly impressive (5-14), but he had several jump shots that looked good but rattled out (including back to back three point shots).  Over all, it was a good bounce back game for him after his poor showing against the Sixers.


• Steve Blake looked to be having an okay night, hitting a couple of big threes and making a few nice passes, but in the last few minutes of the game, he missed several key shots and made two really bad decisions on inbound passes (although, to be fair, he also made a really good inbound pass to Juwan Howard).  He finished with 10 points and 2 assists.


• Andre Miller had an unmemorable night.  He played only 20 minutes and had 6 points and 3 assists (though he would have had a few more dimes if other guys had made some easy shots).  Miller sat for virtually the entire 2nd and 4th quarters.


• Juwan Howard had another solid night, just missing getting another double-double.  He finished with 10 points and 9 boards.  He also had a couple of really nice assists. You can't really ask for anything more from him.


• Martell Webster had a pretty solid game as well.  He finished with 15 points and 4 boards and had the best plus/minus of the night at +11.


• As I noted above, I watched the Clipper broadcast of tonight's game and it was pretty entertaining.  Even before Aldridge left the game, the Clipper announcers kept emphasizing how injury-depleted the Blazers were and how the Clippers had no excuses for not winning.  When Aldridge left and the Clippers still couldn't manage to get a lead, it just got worse.  They kept berating their team for losing to "Brandon Roy and a bunch of nobodies."  They observed that the Clippers were getting out-rebounded by a 37 year old insurance policy and two 2nd round rookies.  They pointed out that the Clippers had three 7-footers and the Blazers had no one over 6'9''.  It was truly hilarious.  I wish I had taped it.  


• It really is remarkable, though.  The Blazers out-rebounded the Clippers 40 to 33 tonight.  The Blazers had 12 offensive boards compared to 7 for the Clippers.  Juwan Howard and Jeff Pendergraph had 23 rebounds between them.  Chris Kaman, Marcus Camby, Deandre Jordan, and Craig Smith had just 21 rebounds combined.  That's just embarrassing.  


• I don't know how long the Blazers can continue to pull out wins with this rag-tag crew, but it was fun to watch tonight.  These guys have all kinds of heart.  

Time to Get Creative

(see update below re: Tolliver)

During its recent roadtrip, the Blazers played inspired basketball and managed to come away with some huge wins despite its injury-decimated roster. But as last night's game against Philadelphia made clear, this is now a team with some obvious weaknesses, weaknesses that other teams will actively try to exploit. You can bet that the teams coming up on the Blazers' schedule will be studying tapes of the second half of last night's game, when the Sixers big men dominated the Blazers in the paint and stifled them on the defensive end.

Barring a major trade, Portland is going to have to get creative to win consistently with its current personnel. When you have no true centers or small forwards (Martell is more of a shooting guard), there's really no other choice. The coaching staff has tried to plug replacement parts into the machinery, having Juwan Howard and Jeff Pendergraph fill the roles previously held by Oden and Pryzbilla. And that worked for a little while. It will still probably work on nights where the Blazers are shooting really well as a team. But other teams adjust. They watch tape. They spot weaknesses and they exploit them.

The same is true on offense. Jerryd Bayless has been a huge sparkplug for the Blazers, helping to fill the scoring void left by the many injuries. But his recent scoring explosion has also put him squarely on other teams' radars. They're adjusting their defense to deal with him. As Dave at Blazersedge notes:

[T]he league knows about him now. As they did with most of the critical Blazers, [the Sixers] defended him perfectly. They knew to not do a thing with him on the dribble drive, as that would probably result in a foul. Just shadow him and wait...wait...wait because once he starts his forward progress he's not going anywhere but down the lane to put a shot up. When he tries to score, strike and block the shot. After he got capped early he tried to compensate with the jumper. It wasn't falling. And without Bayless producing that bench scoring gets pretty thin.

I noticed the same thing last night. And it actually dates back to the Denver game. Denver was guarding Bayless the same way. The bigs in the lane would let him go through, avoid contact, and then use their length to swat away his shot. Jerryd is going to have to adjust as well. He's going to have to alternate the timing of his shot, make use of floaters and shot-fakes to become less predictable. He could learn by watching some old tapes of the person he was guarding last night, Allen Iverson.

But more than anything that Jerryd has to do personally, the Blazers as a team have to get creative on offense and make things easier for our scorers. For starters, and I feel like a broken record saying this, the Blazers need to be more aggressive in transition. Players like Andre Miller, Jerryd Bayless, Lamarcus Aldridge, and Martell Webster were born to run and look great in transition. Aldridge may be the most skilled transition big that I've ever seen, and he rarely gets to use that set of skills. Miller is fantanstic in transition, as we saw last night when he completed two perfect full-court outlet passes leading to easy layups for Webster and Dante Cunningham. Bayless is blazingly fast and much less likely to get blocked if he can get out ahead of the defense.

Philadelphia is actually the perfect model for how to incorporate a transition game into an otherwise slow-paced offensive strategy. The Sixers generally play at a slow pace, but they take advantage of transition opportunities to score easy buckets, as they did last night. The Blazers can do that too. They really can. It just requires the coaching staff putting a real emphasis on it.

In the half court set, it's clear that Roy and Bayless both do better when the Blazers clear the lane and create room to drive. I think that's why both have played significantly better since Greg Oden's injury. Oden was constantly trying to set up position in the low post, which of course meant that there were always one or two defenders right around the hoop. By contrast, Joel Przybilla tended to stay around the top of the key on offense, creating more space for Brandon (and Jerryd) to operate. They same is true of Juwan Howard.

Given the very limited low post-scoring abilities of Przybilla and Howard, I completely understand this strategy. The problem is, it's not as effective as it could be because teams don't respect Przybilla or Howard's shooting ability and thus cheat off of them. If the Blazers really want to create room for Roy and Bayless to operate, they need put players at the 4 and 5 positions who command respect from the perimeter. McMillan tries to do this when he goes small, playing Aldridge at the 5 and Webster or Cunningham at the 4. But those lineups also give up a lot on defense, with Roy or Webster forced to guard the other teams' power forward and Aldridge forced to guard center.

What I'd really like to see is a lineup that features Roy and Bayless in the backcourt, Webster at the wing, and Aldridge and Tolliver as the bigs. Everyone in that lineup can hit a three (Tolliver was shooting over 40% in the D-League before being called up). With that lineup, the bigs can position themselves way out on the perimeter, creating all kinds of space for Roy and Bayless to operate. If the defenders cheat in towards the hoop, someone will always be wide open for a shot. And unlike the small lineup that Nate's been using from time to time, this lineup doesn't give up nearly as much size on defense. Aldridge and Tolliver have the height and size to at least avoid major mismatches inside, and Roy and Webster can cover the wings.

I'm not saying this should be the starting lineup or anything. I just think it should be tried for a stretch here and there, to see if it works. I'm somewhat perplexed, to be honest, that Nate hasn't given Tolliver more playing time given the Blazers' current situation. He got burned a couple times in his only previous appearance (4 minutes), but I think he probably deserves a little more of a chance to prove himself. Tolliver's ability to hit an open three is a potential game-changer, something that differentiates him from every other healthy big on the roster. If he can hit a couple of those in game situations, and play passable defense, his presence on the court could really make things easier for our guards and allow them to aggressively attack the basket.

The other thing that could help in this regard, as I noted the other day, is if Aldridge can add a three point shot to his arsenal. Aldridge is 4 for 6 on the season from three point range and has been shooting well on long-distance twos. The problem with long-distance twos, however, is that they are inefficient and, as a result, defenses are generally willing to concede them. If you want to consistently lure defenders away from the paint, you need to be able to take and hit a three. If you can do that, the defense has to commit someone to you and that defender will not be in a position to stop any drives to the paint. If Aldridge can convince teams that he is a threat to hit from three point range, it will make life much easier for our guards.

UPDATE: Well, so much for that idea. The Blazers waived Anthony Tolliver today and assigned Patty Mills to the Idaho Stampede, their D-League affiliate. I suppose it's possible that there is some kind of financial chicanery going on here and that Tolliver will be re-signed to a new temporary contract. Doubt it though. Given that the Blazers applied for an additional injury exemption, they may have someone else in mind and didn't want to wait to sign him.

Some post-game thoughts (Sixers edition)

And the injury-depleted Blazers come crashing down to earth . . .

• If one stat encapsulates the night, it's this: the Sixers had 60 points in the paint; the Blazers had 40.  That's actually better than normal for Portland.  But it's virtually impossible to win a game when you give up 60 points in the paint.  The Blazers lack of size and depth in the frontcourt was really exposed tonight.  With no Oden or Przybilla, the Blazers were absolutely destroyed by the Sixers post players.  Elton Brand looked like the guy he was 2 years ago, with 25 points (on 11 for 16 shooting) and 9 boards.  Sammy Delambert had 14 points and 8 boards.  And Marreese Speights added 14 points.  Thanks to all the close-range shots, the Sixers shot an amazing 57.7% on the night.


• Despite the poor defensive showing, the Blazers were actually up by 10 early in the third quarter of this game.  But then the offensive just stopped.  No one could hit anything, even foul shots (Roy was 3-7 from the free throw line and Aldridge was 3-6).  Other than their foul shooting woes, however, both Roy and Aldridge had respectable nights.  Roy finished with 24 points.  Aldridge had 17 points and 12 boards.  Both again played long minutes (Roy 42, Aldridge 44).


• Jerryd Bayless had his worst game of the year, going 0-7 from the field and playing just 16 minutes.  He did have 4 assists and made both of his foul shots.  


• Steve Blake had a quiet night, get 10 points on 4-10 shooting and 3 assists.  Several of his makes came in the 4th, after the game was effectively over.


• Miller won the point guard derby for the second game in a row.   He had 11 points (on 4-7 shooting) and 7 assists, including several amazing feeds for easy buckets under the hoop.  As the Sixers pulled away in the fourth quarter, I kept wondering why Miller wasn't in the game.  He deserved to be.  By the time he was put back in it was too late. 


• Jeff Pendergraph played his best minutes to date, scoring 11 points and pulling down 5 boards in 19 minutes of play.  Dante Cunningham also had a decent appearance, though brief.  He had 6 points and 2 boards in 7 minutes of play. 


• Juwan Howard had a very quiet night, getting 6 points and 2 boards in 20 minutes of play.  My sense, though, which seems to be backed up by the plus/minus numbers, is that Howard was playing better team defense than Pendergraph.  He finished the night with a +1, while Pendergraph had a -10.  


• The Sixers tonight were a much better team than their record indicates.  Elton Brand is finally starting to play like Elton Brand.  Iverson returned and had a decent night.  The team that played tonight, if it can stay healthy, is at least a .500 team in the East.  


• That said, this is not a team that a healthy Blazer squad should lose to at home.  The Blazers lost tonight because their weaknesses were finally exploited.  Their lack of front-court size and depth was finally exposed.  The question going forward will be whether the Blazers can come up with a defensive strategy to compensate for what happened tonight.  If they don't, there will be a lot of nights like tonight.  The next might be on Wednesday, when the Clippers and Chris Kaman come to town.  

Some post-game thoughts (Nuggets edition)

And the win streak is now four . . .

• The Blazers have had a number of four game win streaks over the last few years. But I don't remember one as satisfying and improbable as this one.  After losing a game in Orlando that they competed in through three and half quarters, the Blazers have beaten the Heat, the Mavericks, the Spurs, and the Nuggets consecutively, the first three coming on the road and the last three coming without a center on the active roster.  Oh, and they beat the Spurs in San Antonio without Brandon Roy.  Not too shabby.


• After missing the San Antonio game with a shoulder strain, Roy was back tonight, wearing a black spandex brace over his left shoulder.  If the shoulder was bothering him, it wasn't reflected in his game.  Roy was dominant tonight, scoring 25 points in the first half and 41 total.  He played 43 minutes tonight and carried the team through much of the game, but he finally got some help in the fourth quarter.


• In the 4th quarter, the Steve Blake of last season finally showed up.  Blake started raining threes, finishing the night with 17 points on 5 for 7 shooting from beyond the arc.  Thanks to Blake's shooting, the Blazers eventually pulled away from Denver down the stretch.  


• Jerryd Bayless also had a pretty forgettable game until the 4th quarter.  He seemed to be pressing too hard, missing most of his outside shots and, on several occasions, driving wildly into the paint and getting swatted by Birdman.  In the fourth, though, Bayless started making better decisions, got a couple key buckets on drives to the hoop and made a number of good passes.  He finished with 9 points and 7 assists on 2-10 shooting.


• Andre Miller had a pretty solid game, especially in the third quarter.  He was hitting from midrange and making nice entry passes for some easy buckets.  He finished with 14 points and 8 assists on 5-9 shooting.  Given how well he was playing, I was surprised Nate stuck with Bayless down the stretch.  Miller probably deserved to be in at the end of this one.  


• Martell Webster also had a decent game.  He finished with 11 points and hit 3 of his 5 three point shots.  More importantly, though, he had a really good stretch in the third quarter where he scored 8 quick points and really got in Carmelo Anthony's head on defense, causing Melo to pick up his third and fourth fouls in quick succession.  


• Juwan Howard and Jeff Pendergraph played decently at the center position, getting 6 points and 13 boards between them.  


• Lamarcus Aldridge had a quiet offensive night, scoring only 10 points on 5-10 shooting, but he played 45 minutes and grabbed 13 boards.  The Blazers just didn't seem to be looking for him much on offense. 


• Alrdridge, Howard, and Pendergraph were the only bigs who saw playing time tonight.  Neither Cunningham nor Tolliver made an appearance.  I'm not sure how sustainable a rotation that is.  It's hard to believe that Aldridge and Howard can keep playing this many minutes.  And Pendergraph is still trying to play his way back into shape.  At some point, Nate is going to have to give Tolliver and Cunningham some more run.


• Somehow the Blazers scored 107 points tonight while getting only 1 fast break point.  That's hard to do.


• Overall, this was another solid showing by an injury-depleted team competing against a very talented and dangerous Denver squad.  I've never been more proud of this team.   

Is it time for Aldridge to pull a Channing Frye?

One of the biggest surprises in the league this year has been the emergence of Channing Frye as a 3-point assassin for the Phoenix Suns. In his first four seasons in the league, Frye made a grand total of 20 three point shots (in 70 attempts). This year he's already made 75 threes (in 167 attempts). That leads the league. And he's converting them at an astounding 45% rate.

When you look back, though, it's not too hard to see that Frye had potential as a long range shooter. While he didn't take many threes, he took a lot of long-range twos, just a step inside the line. And he converted those fairly well. If you can do that, it's not much of a stretch to take another step back.

And that brings me to LaMarcus Aldridge. Like Frye, Aldridge has a good looking perimeter shot. He routinely takes and hits shots from just a step within the 3-point line. And this season, Aldridge has converted four of his six 3-point attempts. That's obviously a very small sample size, but it gives me reason to think that Aldridge can make the same transition that Frye did.

And it makes a lot of sense for him to try. The long range two is the least efficient shot in the game of basketball. If you take a step back and shoot a three, you can be a more efficient scorer even if your shooting percentage declines. So why not give it try? If Aldridge can add a three point shot to his arsenal, he'd instantly become one of the best stretch fours in the game. It would open things up not only for him, but for the rest of the team.

If I were Nate McMillan (a phrase I repeat far too often), I would have Aldridge start practicing from 3-point range (if he doesn't already) and I would run at least one play a game to get Aldridge an open look from whichever spot beyond the arc he prefers. I don't think Aldridge should just start bombing away, but I'd encourage him to take one or two attempts a game, for now. If he converts them at a decent rate, I'd give him more. If not, the experiment can end.

But what do we have to lose? Without Fernandez and Outlaw, the Blazers are short on three point shooters. They could use another three point threat on the team. And, all things being equal, a big who can hit threes is more valuable than a guard who can do the same. It stretches the defense and opens up the floor. I think Aldridge has the tools to be that guy. So let's give him a shot.

On a related note, given that Anthony Tolliver is apparently a decent 3-point shooter himself, I'm intrigued by the idea of fielding a lineup that features Tolliver, Aldridge, and Webster in the front court and Roy and Bayless in the backcourt. Everyone in that lineup can hit a three, and if the bigs are forcing their defenders out onto the perimeter, Roy and Bayless should have an easy time driving to the hoop. But I think that's a conversation for a future post.

Nate's Odd Comments About Bayless

After the Blazers improbable win last night in San Antonio, Nate McMillan was asked about Jerryd Bayless' career night. Here's what he said:

“We knew what [Bayless] was capable of doing if given the opportunity. He’s playing off the ball and we need him to score. He’s showing that he’s capable of scoring. Once again he showed it tonight. At the start of the game we realized Brandon wouldn’t be able to go and I told him he had to step in at that spot. I told him to have fun with it. We gave it to him, moved him around, and he delivered. I’m more happy to see him come along defensively, to see him playing off the ball. His game has definitely picked up.”

When asked whether he had given Bayless the green light to shoot, Nate said:

“He had the green light. He’s playing off of Miller and Blake and we’re running similar sets that we run for Brandon where we try and move him around and get him that ball and let him spread the floor. I thought tonight he did a nice job of not only scoring, but when he made the defense commit he gave up the ball.”

Now maybe I'm reading too much into this, but in the course of answering two questions, Nate seems to go out of his way (twice) to emphasize that Bayless was playing "off the ball," the implication being (at least as I read it), that Bayless was playing off-guard, not point guard.

But here's the thing. That's not really true. Bayless had the ball in his hands the majority of the time he was on the court last night. He brought the ball up the court at least as many times as Miller or Blake, and in the fourth quarter, Bayless (like Brandon usually does) took the ball up the court on most possessions. Furthermore, the vast majority of Bayless' scoring was off the dribble. He scored primarly with penetration and pull up jumpers. He was only assisted on four of his field goals last night, and all four were perimeter shots on kickouts.

And Bayless wasn't just scoring. He had seven assists (and ZERO turnovers). In short, Bayless was playing the role of scoring point guard last night, not off-guard. If you doubt this, try to imagine Rudy Fernandez playing the role Bayless played last night. Even Brandon lacks the ball-handling chops to do much of what Bayless was doing last night. When was the last time you saw Brandon dribble into the paint, dribble back out again, and then circle back around for another try? That's something the Steve Nashes and Tony Parkers of the world do, not the Brandon Roys and Dwyane Wades.

While I don't want to read too much into Nate's comments, I get the sense that he feels somewhat defensive about Bayless' recent success. Here's a guy who has languished on the Portland bench for the last year and a half. Suddenly he gets thrust into the lineup and he's lighting the world on fire. For the coach, the obvious question is why weren't you playing this guy before? Nate's implied answer to that criticism is that Bayless is an off-guard and that the Blazers had (until recently) two other quality off-guards on the active roster, Roy and Rudy Fernandez. But if Jerryd continues to play the way he's been playing, this defense just isn't going to hold up. Neither Miller nor Blake (the "true" point guards in McMillan's eyes) are doing anything on the court that Bayless isn't doing just as well. And we've seen in recent games that Bayless and Roy are more than capable of co-existing together in the backcourt. They've actually looked pretty damn good together.

So there's only so long that Nate can continue to play the "Jerryd's not a point guard" card and expect to get away with it. When Rudy and Roy are both healthy, it's going to be a moment of truth for Nate. He's going to have to acknowledge that Bayless is indeed a point guard and play him at that position. My hope is that, by that point, either Andre Miller or Steve Blake will have been traded, thereby forcing Nate's hand.

There will undoubtedly be bumps in the road ahead for Bayless. He won't always be as good as he was last night. But he's shown enough lately to convince me that he has the chops to be a point guard in the NBA. And given that he'd be paired with an off-guard (Roy) who likes to handle the ball himself, Bayless may end up being an ideal fit for Portland. I was hesitant to believe it before, but now I'm a believer. Bayless and Roy are the future backcourt for the Portland Trailblazers.

Some post-game thoughts (Spurs edition)

Another day, another improbable victory . . .

• With every win on this road trip, the Blazers have managed to win in even more improbable fashion.  Tonight, the team took the court without Brandon Roy and Joel Przybilla, both of whom were lost to injury last night in Dallas.  The team was missing 6 of its top 8 scorers from last season.  Jerryd Bayless and Juwan Howard started.  Jeff Pendergraph was forced to play big minutes in just his second NBA game, virtually all of them guarding Tim Duncan. And somehow the Blazers found a way to win.  In San Antonio.  On the second night of a back-to-back.  Incredible.  


• Everyone stepped up tonight, especially on defense.  And all eight guys that took the court deserve credit for the win.  But if you have to choose a hero, the obvious choice is Jerryd Bayless.  In his first career start, Bayless played 42 minutes, scored 31 points, and racked up 7 assists, 2 boards, a steal, and a block.  And he had ZERO turnovers.  The Spurs just had no answer for him. Bayless played with fearlessness, confidence, and poise.  He made good decisions with the ball and made several fantastic passes to get his teammates easy buckets.  He played solid defense all night.  And for good measure, he made both of his threes, including a huge one in the 4th quarter (he actually had another that was ruled a two because his foot was on the line).  For the record, that raises Bayless' 3-point shooting percentage to 43% for the season.   


• I'll go ahead and say it: the Blazers have found their point guard of the future, Brandon Roy's backcourt mate.  He was sitting under our noses the whole time.  There will undoubtedly be bumps on the road ahead for Bayless.  He won't be this good every night.  But he's shown enormous improvement in all the areas (shooting, play-making, defense) that were keeping people from believing he could be the solution at point guard.  The Bayless we saw tonight is more than capable of being a starting point guard in the NBA, especially on a team that has a player like Roy at the 2.  Bayless is the answer.  


• Juwan Howard also deserves honorable mention.  He had his second straight double-double tonight, scoring 12 points, pulling down 12 boards, and ending the night with a +22.  He really stepped up to fill the void.  It was his best game of the season.  


• LaMarcus Aldridge also had a solid game, getting 22 points and 8 boards.


• Andre Miller and Steve Blake both had forgettable offensive nights but played solid defense.  For the second night in a row, Miller sat for most of the 4th quarter but came in and drilled two clutch foul shots to clinch the game.  


• Jeff Pendergraph, playing in only his second NBA game, scored 4 points and had 4 rebounds in 17 minutes of play.  He also had a block and a steal.  I was impressed by his poise and comfort level, especially in light of the fact that he had to guard Tim Duncan for most of the time he was on the court.  He got healthy at just the right time and is going to get some valuable playing time now.  


• Overall, this was a gutty win for the Blazers at the tail end of an improbably successful roadtrip.  When the adrenalin wears off, though, the Blazers will have a tough road ahead of them, especially if Brandon's shoulder injury is at all serious.   Win or lose, though, it's going to be fun rooting for these guys.  

Some post-game thoughts (Mavs edition)

Good grief . . .

• Toward the end of the first quarter, the Blazers' starting center crumbled to the floor holding his knee.  His kneecap was visibly displaced.  He was helped off the floor by his teammates and soon thereafter the news came back that he had dislocated his patella and is likely gone for the season.  Stop me if you've heard this one already.  Seriously, what are the odds that this exact event would happen twice to the Blazers in one season?  That we'd lose not only our starting center, but his backup as well, in the exact same way?   The odds are vanishingly small.  But that's what happened.  The Blazers' season is starting to feel like one of those Final Destination movies, where all the characters are slowly dispatched in one freak accident after another.  


• And somehow the Blazers managed to pull the game out.  In Dallas.  A place where they NEVER win.  Nowitzki even started for the Mavs.   


• I'll get to some observations about the game in a minute, but first a bigger picture observation.  With both Oden and Przybilla gone, the Blazers no longer have a center on the active roster.  All of our rotation worthy players (except LaMarcus) are back-court players.  It's time to throw the original game plan out the window and go permanently small.  It's time to run, Golden State style.  Nate's going to have to adjust to the realities of the situation and let his team try to get some easy buckets in transition.  There's just no other way.  Our defensive and rebounding assets are gone.  


• Now back to tonight's game.  LaMarcus Aldridge absolutely carried the Blazers in the first half, scoring almost all of his 19 points.  He also nabbed 12 rebounds.  Troubling, though, was the fact that Aldridge was forced to play 45 minutes.  That's not sustainable.  Nate is going to have to give more minutes to guys like Cunningham (zero minutes tonight) Tolliver (3 minutes), and Pendergraph (4 minutes).  


• With Przybilla gone, Juwan Howard played virtually the entire rest of the game, logging 34 minutes.  He did pretty well, getting 10 points and 10 boards.  But this too is unsustainable.  


• Brandon Roy had a typical Brandon Roy game.  He wasn't particularly hot, but he seemed to find his groove late, ending up with 23 points, 6 assists, and 3 boards.  At the end of the game, he was holding his left shoulder and seemed to be in pain.  The way this season has gone, you just have to hope he's not nursing a torn labrum.  


• Webster pulled his typical Jekyll and Hyde act.  Tonight was a Hyde night.  He had 3 points in 28 minutes.


• There was no clear winner in the point guard derby tonight.  Blake, Miller, and Bayless all got roughly equal time (less than 30 minutes each).  Blake was was only 2 for 7, but both makes were big threes.  He had 6 points and 4 assists, and he got to finish the game on the court.  Miller had 12 points on 4-11 shooting, along with 3 assists and 4 boards.  He was not in the game down the stretch, but did come in and hit two clutch free throws to ice the game.  Bayless was 3-8, with 9 points, 2 assists, and 4 rebounds.  He got to finish the game on the court.  He hit a key 3 pointer and layup down the stretch.  


• Overall, it's hard to say that the Blazers really deserved to win tonight.  They didn't play very well.  But they played better than the Mavericks, who, with the exception of the 3rd quarter, looked absolutely terrible.  But a win is a win.  Even when it's bitter-sweet.  This was a good win.  I just don't know what to realistically expect going forward.  Przybilla was a huge loss.  

Some post-game thoughts (Heat edition)

That was a really big win . . .

• This was probably Brandon Roy's finest game so far this season. Not only did he score 28 points, but he did it with remarkable efficiency.  He shot 11-14 from the field and 5-5 from 3-point range.  He made all of his shots in crunch time to ice the game.  By contrast, Dwyane Wade also had 28 points, but he was 13-31 from the field. 


• In his typical Jekyll and Hyde style, Martell Webster had an excellent game the night after having a terrible one.  He had 15 points on 4-7 shooting and finished the game with an impressive +24 (which was easily the highest plus/minus of any Blazer).  


• LaMarcus Aldridge also bounced back after his worst game of the season last night.  Tonight he had 23 points and 8 boards.


• Andre Miller was the winner of the point guard derby tonight.  He had 17 points on 6-10 shooting and was rewarded by being the guy in the game at the end (both Bayless and Blake finished tonight's game on the bench).  


• Jerryd Bayless had a relatively quiet night, recording 6 points and 2 assists in 16 minutes of play.  Encouragingly, though, Bayless again hit two 3 pointers.  By my unofficial math, that raises his 3-point percentage up to 35% for the season.  If he can continue to hit threes at that rate going forward, it will open up the floor for him and the rest of the team.  Consistent outside shooting is his ticket to even greater playing time.  Bayless also looked pretty good with the ball.  In addition to his two assists, he had a couple of good passes that should have resulted in buckets.  


• The newest Blazer, D-League call-up Anthony Tolliver, made a brief appearance in the game tonight.  Unfortunately, he seemed to be unaware that Michael Beasley is left-handed and ALWAYS goes left.  In fact, it almost seemed that Tolliver was trying to force Beasley to go left.  Beasley readily obliged, scoring several easy baskets in a row.  And that was it for Anthony Tolliver.  Not a great start.  


• But Tolliver did get more minutes tonight than either Dante Cunningham or Jeff Pendergraph, neither of whom saw any action.  McMillan instead chose to play Juwan Howard for 18 minutes.  Howard played decently, not making many mistakes and pulling down 5 boards and 2 points.  


• Overall, this was a really good win for the Blazers.  They were playing an above .500 team on the road on the second night of a back-to-back.  And they were down by 6 late in the fourth quarter.  But they pulled it out.  With two really difficult road games still to go on this road trip, that's huge.  They needed this one in a bad way.  And they got it.  

Some post-game thoughts (Magic edition)

Well, that one ended poorly . . .

• The Blazers hung with the Magic on their home court for three and a half quarters tonight, but then just ran out of offense.  Their defensive effort was solid, holding the Magic to just 92 points.  


• Offense was another story.  LaMarcus Aldridge had one of the worst games of his career, scoring only 3 points and pulling down 1 rebound in 31 minutes.  Had the normal LaMarcus showed up, the Blazers probably would have won.  


• The same was true of Martell Webster, who couldn't hit anything.  He was 1-11 from the field and 0-2 from the foul line (with both shots missing badly).  That's really disappointing given how well Webster had played in the last few games.


• Virtually all the scoring came from the guards tonight.  Roy had 33.  Miller had 16.  Blake had 11.  Bayless had 10.  No one else was in double figures.  McMillan was so desperate for scoring that for significant stretches of the game, he played all four guards at once.  Roy played at least 10 minutes tonight at power forward.  It's really hard to win like that.  Just ask Golden State. 


• Jerryd Bayless followed up his breakout performance on Thursday with a less impressive one tonight.  He had a good second quarter, scoring 10 points, but couldn't put much of anything together in the second half.  He was aggressive, but his shot wasn't falling and he wasn't getting foul calls when he drove to the hoop.  He's bound to have nights like this. I still think he deserves to play 30 minutes.  


• Jeff Pendergraph was apparently activated prior to the game.  He didn't make an appearance, though.  Neither did the newest Blazer, Anthony Tolliver.  It will be interesting to see when/if Nate lets either of those two on to the court.  Given how little the team is getting offensively from either Juwan Howard or Dante Cunningham, I say give 'em a shot.  Playing four guards at once isn't going to work.   We need to get some scoring from front-court guys.    


• The Blazers are now 16-12 on the season.  Given the tough schedule ahead, they're going have to battle hard to stay above .500.  They need to beat Miami or things could really start getting ugly.  

Some post-game thoughts (Suns edition)

What a game . . .

• Bayless definitely deserves the first mention. He was a revelation, playing even better than the Bayless Boosters among us thought possible. For the second straight game, he played absolutely huge in crunch time, scoring 16 points in the fourth quarter and a career-high 29 total. And he didn't just score in traditional Bayless style (i.e. crashing the rim). He also canned a number of key spot up jumpers, including two huge threes down the stretch. Perhaps even more importantly, though, Bayless did a lot more than just score. He looked comfortable with the ball and made good decisions. He made several really nice assists, including a perfectly threaded alley-oop pass to LaMarcus in the first half (made while running and standing outside the three point line). If Bayless can continue to make outside shots and good passes, he will instantly become the most well-rounded and dangerous point guard on the Blazer roster. He clearly was tonight.


• Roy also had a solid game, especially down the stretch. His shots weren't falling early, but he was generally making good decisions and it started to pay off down the stretch. What I particularly liked was Brandon's willingness in the 4th quarter to draw the double team and then kick it out to a teammate, usually Bayless. You can tell Brandon feels comfortable playing with Bayless and really likes the kid. Brandon looked like a proud older brother at the end of the game.


• Lost amidst the heroics of others was the solid game that Martell Webster had. Not only did he hit some key jumpers, but he hustled on the offensive glass, pulling down 3 huge offensive rebounds, including a game-winning one at the end (he had 7 total rebounds). Martell finished the game with +18 plus/minus, the best of anyone on the team. He also seemed to respond well to being put in the game during crunch time, which is a very promising sign.


• What I didn't understand (yet again) was why McMillan kept pulling Martell early and replacing him with Blake. Blake didn't have a bad game. He had a relatively efficient 12 points which included a couple big threes, but he also played 38 minutes, every single one of them alongside another point guard. Given that Martell is our only healthy small forward, and is playing pretty well (better than Blake), I don't really understand why McMillan insists on allotting so many minutes to Blake. It's truly bizarre.


• Whatever lineups McMillan goes with, the only sensible rotation at the moment is one that maximizes the minutes being played by Roy, Aldridge, Przybilla, Bayless, Webster. Those guys should all be getting around 35 minutes, with other guys filling in the gaps.


• It will be interesting to see how Bayless' recent explosion affects the team going forward. One thing I'm virtually certain of now, though, is that--barring further injury--either Andre Miller or Steve Blake will be traded relatively soon. Bayless rendered himself untouchable last night from a trade perspective and unbenchable from a playing perspective. And it is simply untenable to continue to juggle minutes among three point guards, especially when the team has obvious holes at other positions. Pritchard will deal either Miller or Blake, depending on how they play this month and what kind of offers the team is getting for them. One of them will be gone before long.

Some post-game thoughts (Kings edition)

Here we go:

• While the post-game chatter will likely center around Jerryd Bayless, the game ball for tonight's game goes to Joel Przybilla.  And it's not even close.  Przybilla's stat line for the night was a rather pedestrian 5 points and 10 rebounds, but anyone who watched the game knows that the Blazers played like two different teams tonight: a good team when Joel was in the game and a terrible team when he was sitting.  Joel ended the night with a plus/minus of +27.  That's astounding considering the Blazers won by only 7 points.  No one else came anywhere close.  Joel was a defensive menace tonight and the team's MVP.


• Roy and Aldridge finished with pretty good traditional stat lines.  Roy had 29 points, 10 assists, and 5 rebounds (though he also had 5 turnovers).  Aldridge finished with 25 points, 9 boards, and 5 assists.  Both played a LOT of minutes (44 for Roy, 41 for Aldridge) which is worrisome.


• The media focus tomorrow will likely be on Jerryd Bayless, who had a real breakout performance.  He had 14 points, 2 rebounds, and 2 assists, but more importantly, he played solid ball down the stretch.  McMillan left him in the game during crunch time for the first time in his career and he responded well, scoring a number of key buckets in the last few minutes of the game.  I think Bayless himself could hardly believe he was out on the court in the final minutes of a close game, but he seemed to feed off the pressure and played his most inspired ball down the stretch.  Good for him.    


• Ironically, the odd man out for the Blazers tonight was Andre Miller.  Miller replaced Blake in the starting lineup and the team did pretty well while he was on the court, but Miller himself didn't seem to be involved in much of what was happening.  He had a miserable shooting night, going 2-10, with 4 points, 3 assists, and 3 rebounds in 29 minutes.  


• Steve Blake didn't exactly light the world on fire either, but was more efficient, going 2-4 and scoring 5 points, 2 assists, and 1 board in 24 minutes.  But Blake was in the game down the stretch and hit a key three. 


• Between Bayless, Miller, and Blake tonight, it wasn't even close.  Bayless played much better on both ends of the court.  


• Here's my meta-observation for the night.  Unlike most teams, the Blazers don't rely all that much on off-ball motion to get easy baskets.  They have a stagnant half court offense that relies on jump-shooting and individual guys beating their defenders off the dribble.  Normally, that's not a good recipe for offensive efficiency, but the Blazers have (at least in the past) made it work by combining strong perimeter shooting with aggressive offensive rebounding, leading to easy second chance points.  To be successful with that strategy, you have to have a lot of good shooters and a lot of good rebounders.  The problem for the Blazers this season is that--due to injuries and regression by some key players--they just aren't shooting or rebounding as well as they did last year.   And as a result, they're just not scoring enough.  


• One last observation.  I've been watching Tyreke Evans a lot this season thanks to League Pass.  What you saw tonight was no fluke.  Evans is incredibly good for a rookie.  He does the same kinds of things Brandon Roy does, but he's only 20.  He will be a superstar in this league.  Mark my words.  The sky is the limit with that kid.   

Some post-game thoughts (Bucks edition)

(Sigh...):

• That was a tough one to take.  I like that the Blazers battled back to force overtime, but they really should have won that game in the first overtime.  That's going to be a long plane flight back home.
• There is no question that Brandon Roy is a clutch player.  He proved it again tonight. And if there's only enough time for one more shot, the ball should absolutely be in his hands.  That said, the Blazers are not a good overtime team.  I can't remember the last time they won in overtime.  It's been a LONG time.  And that fact alone strongly suggests that the Blazers' end-of-game strategy of turning the offense over entirely to Brandon Roy is not a good one.  You can't run isolations for an entire overtime (much less two).  You have to actually attempt to execute a normal offense.  Even the best players don't score at a high percentage in pure isolation sets.  They get tired.  And the refs are reluctant to call fouls on every possession, so they start swallowing their whistles, like they did tonight.  It's got to be more than the Brandon Roy show at the end of the game, or we're going to keep losing close games. 
• In that first overtime, LaMarcus Aldridge again demonstrated that he is one of the best transition bigs in the league.  He scored six easy points on three straight possessions, all in transition.  It's absolutely criminal that the Blazers don't take better advantage of his transition skills.  He should be getting 10-12 points off of those kinds of plays every game, at least.  
• Jerryd Bayless got a little more run tonight, and did well.  He had 9 points and 3 rebounds in 18 minutes, without his name really being called on any plays.  I'd still like to see him get more time.  It would have taken some real coaching courage, but I would have really liked to have seen what Bayless could have done in the second overtime.  Everyone on both teams was so tired at that point.  Putting fresh legs in the game could have really made a difference.  
• Though this road trip is over, the schedule isn't going to be getting any easier for the Blazers.  If they don't start clicking, they're going to be below five hundred very soon.   

Some post-game thoughts (Cavs edition)

Here goes:

• Decent effort tonight by the Blazers.  Most nights they win with that effort. 
• Only Lebron gets away with a goal-tend that blatant in a key moment of a game.  
• To all of you who insist Steve Blake is a bad defender, were you watching tonight?  Blake was almost always in the right spot on defense and he actually did a much better job defending Lebron straight-up than anyone else, including Webster and Roy.  Blake's problem is offense, not defense.
• And his offense really is a problem. Blake played 36 minutes tonight and had zero points. Between Przybilla and Blake, we have two starters who are essentially producing nothing on the offensive end.   You can't win that way.  We need more Miller and Bayless, less Blake.
• The absence of Greg Oden is being felt in a number of ways, one of which is defending the pick and roll.  Both Przybilla and Aldridge are mediocre pick-and-roll defenders.  Tonight they made Williams and Varejao look like Stockton and Malone. Neither Aldridge nor Przybilla knows how to show without switching or letting the screener roll past them. It's embarrassing to give up so many easy buckets to Anderson Varejao, one of the more limited offensive players in the league.  
• The other major area where Oden's absence is being felt is on the glass.  The Blazers got out-rebounded 40 to 30 tonight.  LaMarcus Aldridge had 2 rebounds in 36 minutes.  Juwan Howard had 1 rebound in 16 minutes.  Martell Webster had 4 rebounds in 35 minutes.  With Oden out, these guys have to step up on the boards.  They definitely did not tonight. 
• The Blazers also got outscored 52-28 in the paint.   That's not good.   
• It was sad to see Jerryd Bayless get only 8 minutes of run in a game where only 9 players suited up.  In addition to Blake, Bayless probably should have gotten some of Martell's minutes tonight.  Martell was hot in the first quarter, but he couldn't hit anything after that.  And he really wasn't contributing anything on defense. 
  
• LaMarcus Aldridge's three at the end of the game makes him 4 for 6 from 3-point range for the season (67%).  While that's obviously a small sample size, it suggests to me that maybe he's ready to start shooting more threes.  With both Rudy and Outlaw out, we need more three point shooters.  Maybe Aldridge can pull a Channing Frye and start raining threes on an unsuspecting league.  It's worth a shot. 
  

The Great Point Guard Debate of 2010

By now you've probably seen this post by Ben over at Blazersedge in which he makes a compelling statistical case for something a lot of us have been thinking, that Jerryd Bayless deserves more playing time. By just about every offensive metric, Bayless is outplaying both Steve Blake and Andre Miller. It's not even all that close. Bayless has, of course, played many fewer minutes than Blake or Miller, so it remains to be seen whether he can maintain a similar level of production if his playing time increases. That said, I completely agree with Ben that Bayless has shown enough to this point to warrant getting more playing time. When someone is producing on the offensive end at the level Bayless has been, especially when the players ahead of him in the rotation are struggling and the team's overall offensive game is hurting, you give that person more minutes.

The same Synergy data shows something else interesting, though. It shows that, among the Blazers' three point guards, Steve Blake rates as the best defender, getting "excellent" ratings in a number of key metrics. The conventional wisdom among Blazer fans is that Steve Blake is a terrible defender. The coaching staff clearly feels otherwise, however, and it looks like the data supports them. I've long though that Blake's reputation among Portland fans as a bad defender was undeserved. It's certainly true that speedy point guards like Aaron Brooks have given the Blazers fits over the years, but blaming that on Blake's defense isn't fair. In the post hand-check era, there isn't anyone in the league (with the possible exception of Rajon Rondo) who can stay in front of the league's speediest point guards.  Aaron Brooks couldn't guard Aaron Brooks.  So  expecting Blake to stay in front of guys like that is completely unrealistic. Defending those kind of guards requires a good defensive scheme and timely help from other guys.

In terms of the things you can realistically expect your point guard to do on defense (i.e. get around picks, contest perimeter shots, provide timely help, rotate to the right spots, etc.) Steve Blake does a great job. He's a smart player who knows where to be and what to do on defense and he consistently puts in the effort. Blake's principal limitations as a point guard are not defensive, they're offensive. His strengths on offense are that he can generally hit open threes at a decent clip and he makes few turnovers in half court situations. His passing and court vision are average. But other than that, the picture isn't pretty. Blake is terrible at dribble penetration and when he does get into the lane or get free along the baseline, he tends to jump into the air and not know what to do with the ball, often resulting in a block or an errant pass. He also has real trouble in transition. On the rare occasions when he finds himself involved in a fast break, he doesn't seem to know where to be or when to make the pass, all too often resulting in a turnover. Blake has little, if any, mid-range game and while he's a good foul shooter, he doesn't draw very many fouls.

Ironically, both Jerryd Bayless and Andre Miller have essentially the exact opposite skill set. Both are excellent dribble penetrators who are adept at finishing around the basket and drawing fouls. Both are very good in transition. And both have trouble converting long range jump shots. Where Miller has a pronounced advantage over both Bayless and Blake is in his court vision and passing ability. Though he hasn't had much of an opportunity to demonstrate it yet in Portland, Miller is one of the league's better passers. Miller is also a better team defender at this point than Bayless. Like Blake, he's a smart, experienced player who know where to be and when to rotate and help.

So that's the conundrum for the Blazers. They have three point guards, none of whom offers a complete package. My personal opinion, for what it's worth, is that Steve Blake just doesn't offer enough on the offensive end to justify the minutes he's been getting. If the team was stacked with offensive weapons at every other position, Blake might be a sufficient complementary player. But that's not the case, especially with Oden out. The Blazers desperately need more offensive production from the point guard position and both Miller and Bayless bring much more to the table in the offensive department than Blake. Either Miller or Bayless needs to start, and Blake's minutes need to be reduced to the 20-25 range, at most.

If I were running the team, I would seriously consider--at least while Rudy is out--moving Bayless into a Batum-like starting role, i.e., someone who starts, but generally only plays 20-25 minutes. With the offense at the beginning of the game running primarily through Roy and Aldridge, you don't really need an experienced point guard out there. Bayless would be the third scoring option. Starting would give Bayless valuable experience guarding the league's starting point guards and playing alongside Roy. If he's going to be the point guard of the future, this would be a good test. I think Bayless may surprise a lot of people if given that kind of an opportunity.

The next two months will be an extended audition

Whoever's playing with the set of Trailblazer voodoo dolls really needs to find something else to play with. Today came news of another significant injury.  Rudy Fernandez had back surgery and will be out 4-6 weeks recuperating.  Fernandez is the fourth major rotation player to succumb to serious injury so far this season.  The Blazers have only nine active players on the roster and one of them (LaMarcus Aldridge) was sidelined just recently with swelling in his knee.  Almost overnight, the conversation has shifted from whether the Blazers are a championship contender to whether they can even make the playoffs.  John Hollinger's computer projections currently have the Blazers finishing 9th, one spot out of the playoffs.

Needless to say, the season isn't going quite the way most of us envisioned it would. That said, there really is a silver lining here if you squint hard enough.  

Going into the season, the pressing question was how Nate McMillan was going to find enough minutes for everyone. And let's face it, there was no way he was going to be able to. There just aren't enough minutes in a game to get 11 or 12 guys meaningful minutes. And that's not just a problem from a team chemistry, keeping everyone happy perspective. Many of the players on the Blazer roster are assets of unknown value. Until a player gets meaningful minutes in real game situations, it's really hard to know what you've got. Had everyone stayed healthy, odds are that Jerryd Bayless and Dante Cunningham would have seen little, if any, playing time this year, particularly before the trading deadline in February, when the Blazers will have big decisions to make.

In light of the injuries to Travis Outlaw and Rudy Fernandez, however, both Bayless and Cunningham appear poised to get significant minutes over the next month or two. And when Jeff Pendergraph joins the active roster (likely next month), he's likely to see playing time as well. Thus, we figure to get a real good look over the middle part of this season at some guys we otherwise would have had a very hard time evaluating. In the long run, that's good for the franchise. It's much better to make personnel decisions from a position of knowledge. It makes the Jermaine O'Neal scenario less likely (where a team doesn't realize it has a perennial all-star on its roster and trades him for scrubs). By the time Rudy Fernandez rejoins the rotation, we should have a much better sense of where Jerryd Bayless fits--if at all--in the team's future plans. Given that we currently have three point guards on the roster, one of whom has an expiring contract and the other of whom is a potentially valuable trade asset, that's an important thing to know.

Indeed, if you look at the players who are currently injured, they are all guys for whom we have a pretty good sense of what they bring to the table. We know what Outlaw brings. He's been on the team for years. With respect to Batum, Oden, and Fernandez, we may not yet know what their ceilings are as players, but they all played significant minutes last year and we have a pretty good sense of what they can do.

The same is not true of the guys who are healthy (or are likely to be soon).  Among that group, we have two rookies (Cunningham, Pendergraph) and a second year player who got very little meaningful playing time as a rookie (Bayless). We also have a guy (Martell Webster) who missed all of last season with a foot injury and another guy (Andre Miller) who is new to the team. If we're going to be running a skeleton crew, these aren't bad guys to have on it. These are the guys whose futures are most up in the air, whose value is most difficult to determine. These guys are the question marks. And despite all the injuries, the fact remains that we have more guys on our roster than we can afford to keep long term and that, at some point, and probably sooner rather than later, we're going to need to package some of them up and make a move.

Among the ten players currently on (or soon to be on) the active roster, we can be pretty certain that Roy and Aldridge will be Blazers for years to come. But with respect to everyone else, the next few months will essentially be an extended audition. They're all going to get the chance to prove themselves and to prove that they deserve a spot on the roster long term. If nothing else, the next few months should be clarifying. And at least that's something.

Portland's Point Guards

If you look at the league leaders in PER at the point guard position, here are some numbers that stand out:

3rd -- Sergio Rodriguez (22.97)
9th -- Jerryd Bayless (18.95)
30th --Andre Miller (14.81)
60th -- Steve Blake (9.98)

Here's what the current Blazer depth chart at point guard looks like:

1) Steve Blake (starter)
2) Andre Miller (backup)
3) Jerryd Bayless (3rd string)
4) Sergio Rodriguez (given away to Sacramento during off-season)

Just saying . . .

Some post-game thoughts (Knick edition)

Here are some thoughts, in no particular order:

• It's going to be a long season.


• Jerryd Bayless should have been in the game much longer than he was tonight.  He had 14 points in 17 minutes and was the only guy playing with energy and hustle.  Blake had 9 points in 38 minutes.  Andre Miller had 4 points in 26 minutes.  I couldn't believe that Bayless was benched for the final 4 minutes of the game after he keyed the only significant Blazer run. 


• In the absence of Oden, LaMarcus Aldridge is the only big on the team even capable of catching a pass in the low post, much less scoring after the catch.  Neither Przybilla nor Howard can be counted on to convert even an open look down low.  That's a problem.  


• Putting the last two observations together, I think Kevin Pritchard is going to have to put together some kind of deal that involves trading one of our point guards for an additional big, preferably someone who has at least modest offensive skills.  I'd prefer that Blake be the guy traded, but if it ends up being Miller, it won't surprise me.  One of the two of them will likely be packaged with some combination of Travis Outlaw, a pick, or an overseas prospect (i.e., Victor Claver).  It wouldn't surprise me of such a trade took place soon after Dec. 15 (when free agents become available for trade).


• I didn't really appreciate until tonight how much better Greg Oden is at defending the pick-and-roll than either LaMarcus Aldridge or Joel Przybilla, particularly the latter.  I lost count of how many times tonight Joel switched on the pick, leaving Steve Blake or Andre Miller guarding David Lee in the post while he stood out by the three point line.  The Knicks could have done that all night long.  I had been under the impression that our pick-and-roll defense had improved significantly this year.  Turns out the difference was that Greg was playing more.  


• What really killed the Blazers offensively tonight was the inability of anyone to hit a three pointer. The Blazers made one three all night.  The Knicks made 13.  It's amazing they didn't lose by 30.  This is where the absence of Fernandez, Outlaw, and Batum really hurts.  You can't win in the modern NBA if nobody is hitting from downtown.


• Speaking of which, maybe Aldridge should try taking a few more threes.  He's only taken 5 this year, but he's made three of them.  And they looked good.  I think that at least earns him the right to take a few more.  With no one else making them, it's worth a shot.


• I really think it's time to take Blake out of the starting lineup and put Miller in.  This was yet another game where the Blazers got off to a slow start.  I'd like to see if Miller can make life a little easier for Aldridge and Webster at the beginning of the game by giving them some easy looks. And with Bayless doing a good job providing energy off the bench, it would make sense to pair him with Blake off the bench.  At this point, with Fernandez out, there is no one on the bench who can hit a three point shot.  Blake's shooting is more needed off the bench than it is in the starting lineup, where Roy, Webster, and Aldridge can all hit threes.  

The Loss of Oden

Watching Oden collapse in obvious pain last night was a sickening moment.  As he was lying on the court, I could tell that his kneecap was out of place.  I knew that his season was--in all likelihood--done.  As a sports fan, I've experienced moments like that before, when a key guy goes down and you know that the season has just dramatically changed.  But this time was different.  This time, I wasn't thinking about the team.  All I could think about was how bad I felt for Greg Oden, the human being.  I thought of how hard he had worked to recover from his last injury and how long it had taken him.  I remembered how happy he had looked over the last few weeks, as his hard work had finally started to payoff in the form of a string of impressive performances on the court. And then I thought about the long and difficult road that now lay ahead of him, just to get back to where he was a moment earlier, before his knee had failed him.  

And as I thought about those things, I started to well up.  I just felt so bad for Greg.  It wasn't until much later in the evening that I really started thinking about how the injury would impact the Blazers' season.  I know I'm not alone in that regard.  It's really, more than anything else, a testament to Greg's character.  Putting aside his value to the team, Greg Oden is one of the most likable human beings ever to wear a Blazer uniform.  He's earnest, hard-working, humble, funny, and above all, genuine.  It's impossible not to like the guy.

And that's why, regardless of what happens in the future, I will always root for Greg Oden.  I would root for him even if he were traded to a team I hate.

With that said, a few words on the state of the team.  Without Oden, Joel Przybilla will no doubt be elevated to the starting lineup, making it look much like last year's starting lineup (but with Webster in the place of Batum).  While, in principle, there's no reason that lineup can't win at a pace similar to last year, I think that's unlikely.  First, without Outlaw and Oden (and Fernandez for now), our bench is much thinner.  Second, and probably more significantly, I think both Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla had career years last year and are unlikely to achieve similar production.  Ultimately, I think Nate McMillan will be forced to do what he has, up to this point, been reluctant to do: make Andre Miller the starting and principal point guard.  Miller demonstrated yet again last night (as he carried the team in the third quarter) that he is a far more talented player than Steve Blake.  

Prior to Oden's injury there were rumors swirling that the Blazers were considering trading Andre Miller for a forward.  I think that's less likely now.  While the Blazers are now in even greater need of a big, the uncertainty surrounding Rudy's health and the Blazers general lack of warm bodies makes it difficult to justify trading away someone as talented and dependable as Miller.  I have no doubt that Kevin Pritchard will be working the phones over the next few weeks, trying to see what's available, but my guess is that he'll first try to swing a deal involving non-active players.  The most likely trading chip is Travis Outlaw's expiring contract, which could be paired with a draft pick or an overseas player (such as Victor Claver or Joel Freeland) in exchange for a player who could contribute now.  I suspect calls have already been made to Orlando to see if they might be willing to part with Brandon Bass in such a deal. 

With Jeff Pendergraph likely returning to the active roster in a month or so, however, Portland isn't quite at the point where a move is necessary. We're about an injury away from that point, but we're not there yet. So management may well decide to ride things out, see how the team responds, and wait till closer to the trade deadline to decide whether a move should be made. That's probably the right call.

One thing that's certain is that guys who looked like they probably wouldn't be getting much playing time this year are going to get a lot of it over the next few weeks. I'm interested to see, in particular, how Jerryd Bayless and Dante Cunningham respond to the challenge.

Trade Scenarios

[updated below]

The news of the day, as reported by Adrian Wojnarowski, is that the Blazers are supposedly shopping Andre Miller and hope to get an "athletic forward" in return. I'm not sure how seriously to take this reporting, but it's certainly plausible. Personally, I'd really like to see Miller given a chance to start and be the primary point guard before deciding that the experiment has failed, but I'm just some random guy on the internets, so I don't have much of a say in the matter.

I do enjoy speculating about trades, though, so I thought I'd use this rumor as a jumping off point for speculating (recklessly) about various Miller trade scenarios. Here are five such scenarios, some more plausible than others.

Scenario #1 (Miami): Portland sends Miller to Miami in exchange for Mario Chalmers (PG) and James Jones (SF). Miami wants to immediately contend for a title next year when they plan to field a re-signed Dwyane Wade and another max free agent (likely Chris Bosh). Chalmers is their current starting point guard, but while he has potential, he isn't quite ready for prime time. Miller is. In exchange for Miller, the Blazers would get a young point guard who can shoot threes and defend, as well as a small forward who can shoot threes and fill-in for the injured Batum and Outlaw. This isn't a great trade for Portland, but it may end up being the best offer they get. I think Miami would do it. [update: just realized that James Jones' contract is non-guaranteed for 2010-11.  That makes this deal far less plausible.  If it did this, Miami would be taking on $6.7 million in salary obligations for 2010-11 that it doesn't currently have.  Given it's desire to be a major player in the free agent market, Miami probably wouldn't want to do this.]

Scenario #2 (Lakers): Portland sends Miller to the Lakers for Luke Walton (SF) and Jordan Farmer (PG) and a draft pick. The Lakers would get a clear upgrade at point guard. The Blazers would get a small forward who can pass and a backup point guard. I think the Lakers would do this trade in a heartbeat, but I doubt Portland would. The Blazers don't get much talent in return and wouldn't want to make a conference rival even better.

Scenario #3 (Memphis): Portland sends Miller and Travis Outlaw (expiring contract) to Memphis for Rudy Gay (SF) and Marko Jaric's ugly contract. Portland gets its athletic small forward and a guy who can score. Memphis gets a veteran leader at point guard and gets out of its worst contract (Jaric's $7 million). I think Portland would do this trade, but Memphis probably wouldn't. Then again, Memphis' ownership has done some strange things in the past, and they don't seem terribly interested in keeping Gay next year, so you never know.

Scenario #4 (Charlotte): Portland sends Miller, Outlaw, and change (probably a draft pick or rookie/prospect) to Charlotte for Boris Diaw. The Blazers get an unselfish "point forward," much like Hedo Turkoglu, who they coveted during the off-season. Charlotte gets cap relief, an upgrade at point guard, and a prospect. Charlotte probably doesn't go for this, but then again, you never know.

Scenario #5 (Orlando): Portland sends Miller to Orlando for Brandon Bass (PF) and Anthony Johnson (PG). Orlando gets either a starting or backup point guard (depending on Jameer Nelson's prognosis/recovery) and Portland gets an athletic power forward who is currently getting DNPs for Orlando. Orlando probably doesn't go for this unless Nelson's recovery is taking longer than expected.

Personally, I find scenarios #3 and #4 the most interesting, though probably the least plausible. Scenario #2 would be a bad trade for Portland. Scenarios #1 and #5 are probably the most realistic, but if that's all that we can get for Miller, I think I'd prefer keeping him.

Adjusting Strategy to Fit Personnel (i.e. Letting Miller be Miller)

After three straight decisive losses (two to inferior opponents at home), the sense of unease among Blazer fans is unmistakable. A team that had just recently (3 games ago) been ranked second in the league in defensive efficiency has now allowed three straight teams to score over 100 points and has fallen to seventh. And an offense that seemed to be clicking on all cylinders just three games ago against Chicago, has seemingly ground to a halt.

Though I too share this growing sense of unease, the rational part of my brain is still not quite ready to panic. With Aldridge out of the lineup tonight, the Blazers were bound to be a bit disjointed and lacking in fire power on offense. And for the third straight game, the other team came out hitting everything from the perimeter. While the Blazers again conceded too many open perimeter shots, on most nights the other team is not going to convert as many of them as Miami did tonight (or Utah did the previous game or Memphis did the game before that). This is the law of averages catching up with us. Regression to the mean. While I don't have the data at my disposal to back this up, my strong suspicion is that the Blazers gave up a similar number of open jump shots in many of the games that they won earlier in the season. Sometimes teams are hot and sometimes they're cold. They were cold early in the season; they've been hot lately.

To me, the more pressing question is how to fix the team's offense. The debate among the Blazer media over the last few days has focused on how to adjust the team's offensive strategy to account for the emergence of Greg Oden as an offensive threat and the acquisition of Andre Miller, a true point guard who is used to running the offense and controlling the ball. Last season, the Blazer starting lineup included three guys -- Joel Przybilla, Nic Batum, and Steve Blake -- who really didn't look to score and did not need the ball in their hands. The offense, by necessity, ran through Brandon Roy and LaMarcus Aldridge. It was, for the most part, a two man game. And the Blazers did remarkably well given how one-dimensional they were (at least until the playoffs).

This year, two of the offensive pieces the Blazer faithful have long coveted have finally materialized. We now have a center who is a genuine low post scoring threat and a true point guard who is one of the very best distributors in the NBA. And yet, for reasons that I don't really understand, the coaching staff seems fixated on trying to recreate the offensive strategy from last year.

But that's just not going to happen. Steve Blake and Joel Przybilla had career years last year that they are not likely to replicate. Nic Batum and Travis Outlaw are injured. And more importantly, the Blazers have two very important new offensive weapons, a new starting center (Oden) and a veteran point guard (Miller) who has play-making skills that far surpass anyone else on the team.

It is almost axiomatic that good teams adjust their strategy to fit their personnel. But the Blazers seem determined to adjust their personnel to fit their strategy. That's never a good idea.

Brandon Roy is one best all around players in the league. He does everything pretty well (at least on offense). The last two years, because of the personnel, the team needed Brandon to be both the primary scorer and, for much of the game, the primary ball-handler and play-maker. And he ably filled that role. He had to. He was the best option. But that doesn't necessarily mean that this is the best use of Roy's talents. There are plenty of power forwards in this league who, due to a shortage of big men on their teams, have been forced to play center for long stretches and have done pretty well. Chris Bosh is a good example. But that doesn't mean that Bosh wouldn't be better off playing power forward alongside a true center, like Greg Oden. Just because he's good enough to play center doesn't mean that playing him as one is the best way to utilize his talents.

Just because Brandon Roy has done a solid job shouldering playmaking duties in the past does not mean that he (and the team) would not be better if he played a more traditional off-guard role, at least when he's paired with a player (Miller) who is a better play-maker and distributor than he is. As I noted yesterday, Andre Miller is one of the best distributors in the league. Last year, on Philadelphia, he racked up an astounding number of "super" assists, i.e., assists that lead to dunks or lay-ups for his teammates. And he did so for a team that played at a relatively slow pace, like Portland (Philadelphia had the 9th slowest pace in the league).

I realize it's difficult for players to leave their comfort zones, especially when they've experienced as much success as Brandon Roy already has, but someone needs to sit Roy down and explain to him that, ultimately, he'll be able to score much more easily with the help of a premiere passer than he could ever hope to on his own. If Brandon would just use the same effort in his movement without the ball as he does when he's got the ball in his hands, the sky is the limit. It is much harder to defend off-ball movement than it is to defend a guy dribbling the ball, no matter how skilled that player is. You can move faster, turn easier, and make better use of picks when you don't have to worry about dribbling. And someone as skilled as Brandon is at finishing at the rim, even in heavy traffic, is a passer's dream, a recipe for racking up ungodly assist numbers.

From the moment he arrived in Portland, the knock on Andre Miller has been that his inability to hit threes makes him a liability when he plays alongside Roy. Unlike with Blake, Roy can't drive into traffic and dish the ball to Miller for an open three. But this strikes me as having everything backwards. The reason Roy had to drive so much to the hoop last season was because no one else on the team could, especially Steve Blake. But Miller is aggressive and quite adept at penetrating and driving to the hoop. When he and Roy are in the game together, Miller should generally be the one penetrating and dishing to Roy, not vice versa.

I realize that the Blazers' Hypothetical Perfect Point Guard (HPPG) would be someone who, in addition to being an elite distributor, is also an assassin from long range and a defensive stopper, but get in line. In the meantime, we have a guy who is one of the better passers in the entire league and an excellent dribble-penetrator. Rather than lament that he is not also a great shooter, maybe we should be trying to figure out how best to use this new weapon.

If you look up and down the Blazer roster, you see a bunch of tall, skilled finishers. As I noted yesterday, literally everyone on the team--with the exception of Blake--is capable of dunking an alley-oop pass. That's pretty remarkable. And, among the starters, everyone but Greg Oden is capable of knocking down an open three, and everyone, including the bigs, shoots reasonably well from the foul line. This, too, is a passer's dream, a recipe for a hyper efficient offense.

With all due respect to Steve Blake, there is no question in my mind that Andre Miller should be starting every game and playing at least 30-35 minutes. You want continuity on offense? You want consistency? Well then take the guy who has consistently been one of the best floor generals in the league and let him run your offense. Let him make life easier for everyone else on the court, including your star. It may take a few games, but after a while, everything will start clicking. The other players on the court will learn what kind of passes Miller is capable of making and what kinds of off-ball movement and cuts are most likely to result in a pass and an easy bucket. Before long, Miller will be able to read their body language and know, even before they move, when they're going to cut to the hoop (unlike what happened tonight, when Bayless started to cut and then stopped, hanging Miller out to dry on a perfect lead pass).

I'm obviously not an NBA coach, so take what I have to say with a fistful of salt, but I get the feeling that Nate and his coaching staff are making things much more complicated than they need to be. In the NBA there are very few guys, even among those who officially play the point guard position, who have the court vision and passing skills necessary to run an offense. As a result, most teams have to rely on more complicated offensive strategies and find other ways to make due. But when you have the luxury of having a guy like Andre Miller on your team, it makes life much easier. You can give that guy the ball and let him use his gift, let him read the defense and distribute the ball to his teammates. It requires trust and a willingness to delegate much of the decision-making and play-calling to your point guard, but the payoff can be huge. It's the key to achieving a truly efficient and cohesive offense.

Given the amount of experimenting that has gone on this year (and the team's current level of play), I really don't see how it would hurt the Blazers to at least give this option a try. What have we got to lose? Let Miller be Miller. Put him in the starting lineup, stop calling all the plays from the sidelines, and let's see how our offense looks under the direction of a true point guard.

There's no question that adopting this strategy would force Roy to adjust his game, but Roy is, by far, the player on the team most capable of adjusting his game. Given his abundant talent, there's no reason he can't expand his repertoire to include all the moves necessary to be an elite off-the-ball scorer. He can still be the #1 scoring option without having the ball in his hands all the time. And with the right substitution patterns, Roy can use the time Miller is off the court to be extra aggressive offensively and be the play-maker. At the end of the day, the result will be a better, more complete Brandon Roy and a better, more complete team.