Bayless was absolutely the right guy to take the final shot last night

In the aftermath of last night's tough loss to New Orleans, I've heard a number of people today questioning the decision to allow Jerryd Bayless to take the final shot (see here, for example). I couldn't disagree more.

There were only three seconds left in the game on that final possession. Obviously if Roy were available, he'd be the guy taking that final shot. But Roy wasn't available. In his absence, I think Nate McMillan was smart to give the ball to Jerryd Bayless. Here's why.

While there are a number of guys on the team who are, at least at this point, more consistent perimeter shooters than Bayless (i.e., Fernandez, Webster, Blake, and even Aldridge), those players generally do not take shots off the dribble. Most of their perimeter shots come off passes from teammates. Indeed, when those players try to shoot off the dribble, the results are often dodgy.

Bayless on the other hand, takes most of his shots off the dribble, and while I don't have access to Synergy data, my guess is that he shoots a higher percentage on such shots than anyone else on the team save Roy. With only a few seconds left, you want the ball to be in the hands of someone who can, if necessary, take a good shot off the dribble. Everyone else should just try to get open.

Considering the Blazers only had three seconds to work with, Bayless actually got off a pretty good looking shot. It was mid-range and very makable. He'll probably make that shot 50% of the time. He could have dished it to Martell in the corner for a three, but the Blazers only needed two points and there's really no reason to believe Martell's shot would have had a higher percentage chance of going in. Plus, whenever you pass in that situation, with so little time, you add to the equation the chance of a miscue that results in no shot being taken at all.

If the Blazers had a little more time, say ten seconds, they could have tried to run a play to set one of the shooters free, knowing that if it didn't work, there would still be time for the ball-handler to take a shot. But with only three seconds, the highest percentage play is to give the ball to the guy who is best able to shoot off the dribble and let him try to create something. That's what McMillan did, and I think it was the right call.

UPDATE: Okay, I see Ben Golliver agrees with me.