Just How High Is Batum's Ceiling?

Most fans of NBA teams have a tendency to over-rate their own young talent.  Blazer fans are certainly no exception (indeed, we're often the worst offenders).  Whenever a rookie has a good game, we can't help but imagine how good they'll be once they reach their "ceiling" as a player. And that ceiling is inevitably somewhere between All Star and Hall of Famer.

I always try to keep that tendency under control. But sometimes I just can't help myself.

Last year four very promising rookies made their debuts for the Blazers: Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, and Nicolas Batum. Batum was easily the least heralded of the four going into the season. But by the end of the season, I know I wasn't alone in thinking that Batum might have the highest ceiling of the four. In his rookie year, at the age of 19, Batum started for the Blazers and quickly established himself as the best perimeter defender on the team and an immediate "glue" guy. Batum just seemed to have an intuitive feel for where to be on defense, and his long arms and abundant athleticism allowed him to cover a lot of ground. On offense, Batum was content to take a back seat to his teammates, but he still showed flashes of potential. He shot a respectable 37% from three point range and would occasionally explode off the baseline for a dunk or sprint down the court for a easy bucket in transition.

Suffice it to say, a guy with just those skills -- and nothing more -- can be a valuable contributor in this league. Think Shane Battier or Trevor Ariza.

But over the summer, Batum started to show another side to his game. Playing for the French national team, he was asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. And he delivered, leading his team to a number of big wins over tough competition. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury sidelined him for the first half of this season. But he's back now, and the Batum who returned two games ago looks much more confident and aggressive than the Batum of last season.

Batum's PER is currently 28.98. That's obviously not going to hold up, but it does how how productive he's been so far. And the most tantalizing part of it is the way he's scored. Instead of just hitting threes, he's scored off the dribble. He's attacked the rim and scored with pretty finger rolls. He's taken pull up jumpers off the dribble.  In short, he's looked a lot like Travis Outlaw -- on a good night.

If Batum can combine Travis Outlaw's offensive repertoire with a Battier-esque defensive skill-set -- which does not seem far-fetched -- he will become one of the best small forwards in the league. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, of course, but it's hard not to get excited when you see a 20 year old already displaying this kind of feel for the game.

I think Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden all have the potential to become very good NBA players, maybe even All Stars in the best case scenario. But if they never become much more than they are now, that also wouldn't surprise me. But Batum is different. I feel virtually certain that, barring injury, Batum will continue to improve and will have a very successful NBA career. I think his floor is a solid starter. His ceiling is as high as anyone his age in the league. We'd be nuts to trade him.