The Long Term Plan

As hard as it is to believe given how thin the Blazer roster has been lately, there's a minute shortage looming.  You've really got to hand it to Kevin Pritchard and the Blazer front office.  They assembled a 15 man roster that appears to have 15 guys truly capable of contributing at the NBA level.  The 11th (Bayless), 12th (Howard), 13th (Cunningham), and 14th man on the roster (Pendergraph) have all played significant minutes and made major contributions to a winning team.  And the 15th man (Mills) appears have real NBA potential.  Most NBA teams don't even have 15 guys on their rosters, and the guys beyond the 8 or 9 spot are not guys you really want to see out on the court.  

The flip side of depth, however, is the need to make some really tough decisions.  In last night's game, Jerryd Bayless played only 15 minutes and Steve Blake played just 7.  By the end of the week, Rudy Fernandez will be back in the rotation.  In a few weeks, Nicolas Batum will return.  In a month or two, Travis Outlaw will be back.  There aren't nearly enough minutes for all these guys.  

Let's start with Rudy. Let's assume that Brandon Roy will play at last least 36 minutes a game (many nights he'll play more). With just the addition of Rudy to the lineup, that leaves, at most, 108 minutes to be divided between the remaining perimeter players (Miller, Blake, Bayless, Rudy, Webster). That's less than 22 minutes a piece if you divide it even-steven, which isn't that much. And we all know that, in reality, the minutes won't be divided evenly. If one guy gets 30 minutes, someone else will get 10.

Then Nic will return. I can see Nic getting some run at the four spot in a small-ball lineup, but for the most part, his minutes are going to come out of the same 108 minute pool. That's 17 minutes a piece. What that means is that if the roster isn't thinned through trade or (god forbid) further injury, there are going to be one or more Blazer players who are used to having significant playing time who suddenly aren't getting it anymore.

With the trade deadline approaching, now is that time that Blazer fans (and, more importantly, Blazer management) should be giving some real thought to what the team's long term plan is. There's no way we can keep all these guys long term. And even if we could, the minute crunch could very well tear the team apart. It's not healthy to have 12 or more guys on a team who not only think they deserve significant playing time, but are probably right. The best teams are filled out at the bottom of the roster by guys who know their roles and don't feel entitled to more. It's fine to fill those roles with eager rookies or wise veterans, but when you start filling those spots with guys who are just coming into their own or are not yet ready to settle for a reduced role, it's a recipe for turmoil. And those are the kind of guys the Blazers have an abundance of. You can't reasonably ask any of the Blazers' eight perimeter players (including Outlaw, excluding Mills) to be content getting 10 or less minutes a night (much less 5 minutes or a DNP). Some of these guys just have to go, at least after this season. So who do we keep?

In today's NBA, if I were trying to construct a championship team from scratch, here are the pieces I'd try to assemble. At the wings, I would want one dynamic scorer and one defensive specialist. In the front court, I would want a defensively formidable center and an offensively-skilled stretch power forward. At point, I would want someone quick and pesky, a guy who can shoot, defend, and penetrate. To round out the rotation, I would want some role-playing bench guys including a banger who can rebound and play forward or center, a versatile energy guy, and a scorer who can create his own shot.

As you can may have guessed, I think the Blazers already have most of these pieces. A year from now I'd like to see a Blazer starting lineup of Bayless, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden. I think that has the potential to be a championship team. Obviously it will require some real growth from some of these guys. Roy and Aldridge are probably where they need to be now, but Bayless, Batum, and Oden will all need to fulfill their potential. Bayless needs to become more consistent and continue to work on his distributive skills. Batum needs to work on his offensive game. Oden needs to stay healthy and develop a consistent foul line range shot (which I know he's capable of).

The harder decision, in my mind, is who to keep as the reserves. Obviously, if Joel Przybilla can come back healthy, you keep him. He's the ideal backup center. Beyond him, it gets harder.

Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster are both solid players and both have the potential to grow into even better players. The problem is that they would both play essentially the same role, the two-three swingman/shooter/sixth man. In my hypothetical championship rotation, one of these guys would come off the bench and play 20-30 minutes backing up both Roy and Batum. I just can decide who ultimately fits better. Rudy offers more on offense: better shooting, better passing, more potential for making the Big Shot. But Webster has much better defensive potential: he's taller, he can guard forwards, he's more versatile. It's a tough call.

We'll obviously need a backup point guard, too, but I'm not convinced that anyone currently on the team is right for that role. An ideal backup point guard is someone who is competent but doesn't feel entitled to more than about 15 minutes a game. Andre Miller is way too good to be a backup point guard. It's a closer call with Steve Blake, but I'm not convinced that Blake is ready to accept that role either. And the problem with keeping Blake is that Nate McMillan will end up playing him for much more than 15 minutes. If there's a guy who has potential to be the right backup point guard on the team, it's Patty Mills. As a late second round pick, Mills obviously has to first prove that he's worthy of making an NBA roster, but his limited play in the D-League has been encouraging. He may ultimately prove to be a good compliment to Bayless. If Mills finishes the year in the D-League strong and looks good in next year's Summer League, I'd really consider giving the backup point guard job to him and parting ways with both Blake and Miller.

I think the remaining candidates to round out the rotation are this year's rookies, Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham. As second round draft picks, neither of those guys feels entitled to playing time. Both will work hard and embrace their roles, even if limited. Dante has all the looks of an ideal role player. He hustles, plays solid defense, and can hit open shots. The same is true of Pendergraph. Dante can swing between the 3 and 4. Pendergraph can swing between the 4 and 5. I'm not sure either of them will ever be a starter in the league, but both have the potential to be excellent reserves.

So here's the long term depth chart, as I see it:

PG: Bayless, Mills
SG: Roy, Webster
SF: Batum, Webster, Cunningham
PF: Aldridge, Pendergraph, Cunningham
C: Oden, Przybilla, Pendergraph

As you can see, I chose Webster over Rudy. It was a tough call, but I think, on balance, he offers more defense and more versatility. As you can also see, I don't really see a long term role for Blake, Miller, or Outlaw. I like all of those guys, but like I said, we can't keep them all. Those are the guys who I see as expendable. I would aim to fill the remaining 4 or 5 spots on the roster with a mix of veterans of the Juwan Howard, Ime Udoka mold (who can still play but don't feel entitled to minutes) and low-profile rookies of the Pendergraph/Cunningham mold (who are eager to play but don't feel entitled to minutes).  

But I'm not the GM, so I guess we'll just wait and see.