Rethinking The Blazers' Front Court Needs

Going into this season, the plan for the Blazer front court was relatively clear. Oden and Przybilla would platoon the center position, taking up virtually all the available center minutes between them, and LaMarcus Aldridge would play the vast majority of the available minutes at power forward. It wasn't clear who would fill the 10 or so additional power forward minutes, at least long term, but the rest of the front court rotation was set.

With the injuries to Oden and Przybilla, the front court rotation will obviously look quite different for at least the remainder of this season. Reports suggest that Blazer management will be making a decision very soon on whether to seek additional front court help via a pre-deadline trade. With that in mind, I think it's worth re-examining some of the assumptions underlying the way the Blazers have structured the team.

In particular, I think it's worth re-examining the assumption that what the Blazers really need is an Oden/Przybilla clone, a defensive-minded big who can block shots and rebound. But as valuable as guys like Oden and Przybilla are defensively and on the glass, the reality is that on offense, they make life much more difficult for guys like Brandon Roy, Andre Miller, and Jerryd Bayless. Because neither of them is a threat to hit even a mid-range shot, their defenders can afford to cheat back and clog the lane, making it much more difficult for Blazer guards to penetrate. I don't think it's a coincidence that the play of the entire Blazer backcourt has improved dramatically since Oden and Przybilla went down with injury. The guys who have assumed their front court minutes -- Lamarcus, Juwan, Jeff, and Dante -- can all hit a mid-range jump shot and therefore create more space on offense. Indeed, according to BasketballValue.com the most effective 5 man lineup for the Blazers this season has been Miller-Bayless-Webster-Aldridge-Howard (no Roy, interestingly enough).

And this phenomenon isn't confined to this season. Last year, some of the Blazers' most potent lineups were ones that featured Aldridge at the five and Travis Outlaw at the four, with both Oden and Przybilla on the bench. And it's not hard to see why. Outlaw and Aldridge each demand defensive attention on the perimeter and therefore create a lot of space for the offense to operate in.

As Kevin Pelton pointed out yesterday at Basketball Prospectus, the hottest team in the NBA right now, the Charlotte Bobcats, began their current streak when they lost center Tyson Chandler. In Chandler's place, Charlotte has started the more offensively capable Nazr Mohammed (who can at least hit a midrange shot). Moreover, for significant stretches of the game, Charlotte now plays Boris Diaw at the five, a guy who can hit 3-pointers. That lineup really stretches the defense and has dramatically improved Charlotte's offense.

The same phenomenon plays out with the Lakers. Andrew Bynum is a talented center, but the Lakers play much better when Gasol and Odom man the front court. Indeed, Bynum has only sixth best plus/minus on that team and actually has a negative adjusted plus/minus.

And look at the Phoenix Suns. Their most effective lineups are those that feature Channing Frye at the five. Frye has, by far, the highest plus/minus of anyone on that team.

The Houston Rockets are similar. Their most effective lineups are the ones that feature the 3-point shooting David Anderson at center instead of the defensively solid, but offensively limited, Chuck Hayes. Anderson has the highest plus/minus of any Rocket.

For the Toronto Raptors, the sharp-shooting Andrea Bargnani has the highest plus/minus of any of their core players and, though a liability on defense, lineups featuring Bargnani in the front court have had offensive efficiency ratings through the roof this season.

What these numbers suggest is that manning both front court positions with guys who can shoot is often a really effective strategy, even when it means putting a guy out there (Frye, Anderson, Bargnani) who doesn't contribute much on the boards or on the defensive end. In other words, the boost in offensive effeciency often more than makes up for any defensive drop off.

None of this is to suggest that there isn't an important role on good teams for guys like Oden and Przybilla. There definitely is. In many situations, and against many teams, the defense and rebounding that guys like that provide will more than compensate for the congestion they create on offense. On the other hand, stats like the ones above do suggest that it valuable to have at least the option of putting two genuine stretch bigs on the floor simultaneously.

Even assuming everyone is healthy, the only Blazer lineup the comes close to this is one where Outlaw plays the four and Aldridge plays the five. But Outlaw is an undersized four, at best, and he may well not be on the team next year given his contract status. Plus, he's injured now. Given all that, I wonder if the potential move that makes the most sense at the moment is to try to acquire a genuine stretch big, a guy who can play either the four or five and hit threes.

If the Blazers could add a player of the Antawn Jamison/Mehmet Okur variety -- someone who could play alongside Aldridge for stretches -- it could really open things up offensively. I think such a player could conceivably help the team more, even this year, than a Brendan Haywood or Marcus Camby type rent-a-center.

I think that if the Blazers do make a trade, ideally it should be for a stretch big who can contribute beyond this season. What I'd like to see next year is an Aldridge/Oden starting frontcourt with a stretch big coming off the bench who can both backup Aldridge and play some stretches of the game alongside him, thereby putting two stretch bigs on the floor at once. At the same time, I'd like to see Aldridge work on extending his range to the three point line and Oden work on developing a foul line range shot. If all of those things happen, I think it could make the Blazer offense considerably more potent than it is now. The congestion factor would be greatly reduced and guys like Roy, Miller, and Bayless would be the primary beneficiaries.

So is such a trade possible in the next month? Potentially. Clearly the most talented stretch big who is known to be available is Antawn Jamison of the Wizards. At first blush, though, he doesn't seem like the best fit for Portland. He's 33 years old and still has a few years left on his hefty contract. And he really only plays power forward. On the other hand, as the Blazers saw first hand this week, Jamison is still really good, and he isn't overly reliant on quickness or athleticism. Barring injury, he's likely got at least three more productive seasons left in the tank. With the Blazers' current injury-depleted roster, Jamison would likely start, with Aldridge at the five. Longer term, Jamison could reprise his sixth man role from his Dallas days, backing up Aldridge and playing stretches alongside him with Aldridge sliding over to the five.

So what's the downside? Well, first, to get Jamison the Blazers would likely have to package Blake and Outlaw's expiring contracts with some young talent, most likely Rudy Fernandez. Because I think we'll eventually have to part with Rudy anyway, that's not a deal-breaker from my perspective, but I'm sure others will disagree. Second, Jamison is expensive. That's a lot of money to invest in a guy who you have slated to be a bench player. On the hand, as long as Jamison stays healthy, he's good enough that he should remain tradable. So if it's just not working out or the Blazers want to free up cap space to pay someone else, he could probably be moved without too much difficulty.

Another potential target would be Mehmet Okur of the Jazz. Utah is anxious to cut salary and could potentially be amenable to a trade that brings them under the luxury tax threshold. Such a trade would likely have to involve a third team (most likely Memphis) and would require, at minimum, the same trade pieces (Blake, Outlaw, Fernandez). Okur is not as talented as Jamison, but he's a legitimate center and a decent defender/rebounder. His contract is also a little more reasonable ($9 million instead of $11 million). I think, given the Wizards situation, however, Jamison would be much easier to acquire than Okur.

There are, of course, other options. I am by no means wedded to either of these ideas. I do think, though, that Blazers should focus on building a more versatile front court. I don't think that having someone of the Oden/Przybilla mold on the court at all times is a strategy that makes all that much sense given the rest of our personnel. Roy, Miller, and Bayless are all slashers and then need to be given as much room as possible to do what they do best.