Thoughts on Dre Day

Rather than commenting in the moment, I thought I'd sleep on it and reflect a bit. Even with a day's reflection, though, Andre Miller's offensive explosion against Dallas is just as inexplicable. He shattered his career high of 37 points, a mark he set way back in 2003. He scored his 52 while making only one three pointer. And though he added 7 points in overtime, he only played 42 minutes total. He also did it on the second night of a back-to-back. Quite simply, this was one of the more improbable 50 point games in the history of the NBA. And what makes it so much better is that the Blazers literally needed every one of those points to pull out the win, a win they desperately needed. It was one of the most satisfying and entertaining basketball games I've ever had the pleasure of watching.

Lost amid the superlatives rightfully directed at Miller is the fantastic play of several other guys last night. Nicolas Batum didn't do much on offense, but his defensive play, especially at the end of the game, was sensational. Guarding the much bigger Dirk Nowitzki, he played about as well as anyone could, forcing Nowitzki to take tough contested shots and then pulling down three crucial rebounds off the misses.

Jerryd Bayless also played well. He was aggressive and had 17 points in 29 minutes. He finished with a team high plus/minus of +20. He also made a fantastic transition lob alley-oop pass to Aldridge in the 2nd quarter.

One other player that deserves a mention is Dante Cunningham. He only played 13 minutes, but in those minutes I thought he played really well. He had only 1 point and 1 rebound, but he had 2 blocks and looked great on the defensive end. The more I watch this kid play, the more convinced I am that, if nothing else, he will carve out a niche for himself in the NBA as a defensive specialist.

The most remarkable stat of the night is that the jump-shooting Blazers managed to score a whopping 60 points in the paint. That's a testament not only to Portland's aggressiveness, but also Dallas' complete inability to stop dribble penetration. Miller owned them in the paint, scoring 8 field goals at the rim and another 3 from within 10 feet. Bayless added 3 field goals at the rim and 1 from within 10 feet. The Blazers are the worst team in the league at scoring in the paint, so these are pretty amazing numbers.

As improbable as it was, this win was an enormously important one for the Blazers. The very real possibility of a six or seven game losing streak was looming. This win will, at the very least, serve as a jolt of confidence to a beleaguered team. Dallas is a very good team and one that has won just about every close game they've been in this season. To go into Dallas without your best player on the second night of a back-to-back and to win, in overtime, is just so huge.

Just How High Is Batum's Ceiling?

Most fans of NBA teams have a tendency to over-rate their own young talent.  Blazer fans are certainly no exception (indeed, we're often the worst offenders).  Whenever a rookie has a good game, we can't help but imagine how good they'll be once they reach their "ceiling" as a player. And that ceiling is inevitably somewhere between All Star and Hall of Famer.

I always try to keep that tendency under control. But sometimes I just can't help myself.

Last year four very promising rookies made their debuts for the Blazers: Greg Oden, Rudy Fernandez, Jerryd Bayless, and Nicolas Batum. Batum was easily the least heralded of the four going into the season. But by the end of the season, I know I wasn't alone in thinking that Batum might have the highest ceiling of the four. In his rookie year, at the age of 19, Batum started for the Blazers and quickly established himself as the best perimeter defender on the team and an immediate "glue" guy. Batum just seemed to have an intuitive feel for where to be on defense, and his long arms and abundant athleticism allowed him to cover a lot of ground. On offense, Batum was content to take a back seat to his teammates, but he still showed flashes of potential. He shot a respectable 37% from three point range and would occasionally explode off the baseline for a dunk or sprint down the court for a easy bucket in transition.

Suffice it to say, a guy with just those skills -- and nothing more -- can be a valuable contributor in this league. Think Shane Battier or Trevor Ariza.

But over the summer, Batum started to show another side to his game. Playing for the French national team, he was asked to take on a more prominent offensive role. And he delivered, leading his team to a number of big wins over tough competition. Unfortunately, his shoulder injury sidelined him for the first half of this season. But he's back now, and the Batum who returned two games ago looks much more confident and aggressive than the Batum of last season.

Batum's PER is currently 28.98. That's obviously not going to hold up, but it does how how productive he's been so far. And the most tantalizing part of it is the way he's scored. Instead of just hitting threes, he's scored off the dribble. He's attacked the rim and scored with pretty finger rolls. He's taken pull up jumpers off the dribble.  In short, he's looked a lot like Travis Outlaw -- on a good night.

If Batum can combine Travis Outlaw's offensive repertoire with a Battier-esque defensive skill-set -- which does not seem far-fetched -- he will become one of the best small forwards in the league. We shouldn't get ahead of ourselves, of course, but it's hard not to get excited when you see a 20 year old already displaying this kind of feel for the game.

I think Bayless, Fernandez, and Oden all have the potential to become very good NBA players, maybe even All Stars in the best case scenario. But if they never become much more than they are now, that also wouldn't surprise me. But Batum is different. I feel virtually certain that, barring injury, Batum will continue to improve and will have a very successful NBA career. I think his floor is a solid starter. His ceiling is as high as anyone his age in the league. We'd be nuts to trade him. 

Bayless was absolutely the right guy to take the final shot last night

In the aftermath of last night's tough loss to New Orleans, I've heard a number of people today questioning the decision to allow Jerryd Bayless to take the final shot (see here, for example). I couldn't disagree more.

There were only three seconds left in the game on that final possession. Obviously if Roy were available, he'd be the guy taking that final shot. But Roy wasn't available. In his absence, I think Nate McMillan was smart to give the ball to Jerryd Bayless. Here's why.

While there are a number of guys on the team who are, at least at this point, more consistent perimeter shooters than Bayless (i.e., Fernandez, Webster, Blake, and even Aldridge), those players generally do not take shots off the dribble. Most of their perimeter shots come off passes from teammates. Indeed, when those players try to shoot off the dribble, the results are often dodgy.

Bayless on the other hand, takes most of his shots off the dribble, and while I don't have access to Synergy data, my guess is that he shoots a higher percentage on such shots than anyone else on the team save Roy. With only a few seconds left, you want the ball to be in the hands of someone who can, if necessary, take a good shot off the dribble. Everyone else should just try to get open.

Considering the Blazers only had three seconds to work with, Bayless actually got off a pretty good looking shot. It was mid-range and very makable. He'll probably make that shot 50% of the time. He could have dished it to Martell in the corner for a three, but the Blazers only needed two points and there's really no reason to believe Martell's shot would have had a higher percentage chance of going in. Plus, whenever you pass in that situation, with so little time, you add to the equation the chance of a miscue that results in no shot being taken at all.

If the Blazers had a little more time, say ten seconds, they could have tried to run a play to set one of the shooters free, knowing that if it didn't work, there would still be time for the ball-handler to take a shot. But with only three seconds, the highest percentage play is to give the ball to the guy who is best able to shoot off the dribble and let him try to create something. That's what McMillan did, and I think it was the right call.

UPDATE: Okay, I see Ben Golliver agrees with me.

Some post-game thoughts (Pistons edition)

What a big win . . .

• The short-handed Blazers, on the second night of a back-to-back, had just enough left in the tank tonight to gut out a victory over the Pistons and come away a respectable 2-2 on this roadtrip. With the murderer's row of games ahead on the schedule, the Blazers really, really needed this one. 


• It was really a tale of two halves tonight.  In the first, the Blazers played some of the best team basketball they have all season.  And the Pistons played terrible defense.  The Blazers were up by 14 at the half, thanks in large part to the wide open threes that Martell Webster was getting.  In the second half, the Pistons decided they were going to play defense and suddenly looked like a completely different team.  The easy shots were gone and the Blazers stalled out offensively.  Luckily, they found ways to manufacture points and eeked out a victory.  


• The Blazers were carried on offense, especially in the first half, by Webster, who had a career high 28 points and 6 three pointers.  He also pulled down 7 boards and hit two clutch foul shots at the end.  Oh, and he played the entire 48 minutes without rest.  


• With both Roy and Bayless out, Andre Miller and Steve Blake started together.  And they put on an assist clinic, especially in the first half.   Miller finished with 13 assists and Blake with 10.  They each had 11 points.  


• Aldridge had a typical Aldridge night, scoring 21 points and pulling down 8 rebounds. 


• The only other contributor on offense tonight was Rudy Fernandez, who finished with 19 points in 21 minutes.  Ten of those points came on foul shots during a bizarre stretch in the 3rd quarter that began with Rudy being the recipient of a flagrant foul that almost triggered a brawl.  In the aftermath of that skirmish, the refs tried to get things under control by blowing their whistle on any contact.  Rudy capitalized by drawing four additional fouls and sinking 8 more foul shots.  Rudy was a bit uneven the rest of the time, but he did have a few pretty shots, including a driving layup, a floater, and a three.  


• Jeff Pendergraph got the surprise start tonight over Juwan Howard, likely because McMillan thought he'd match up better against Ben Wallace.  He only ended up playing 17 minutes, though, and none during crunch time.  It appeared that he made a few defensive lapses early that angered McMillan, so Howard ended up playing big minutes.  


• A bit out of character, the Blazers scored 18 fast break points tonight.  I'll bet that's the most they've scored all season.  The fact that Miller was running the offense all night probably explains that.  


• Overall, this was a great win for the Blazers.  They got into Detroit last night in the middle of the night after losing a heartbreaker in overtime to Boston.  They were all running on fumes and they were down another man.  They could very easily have gotten blown out.  But they showed up ready to compete, they played a superb first half, and when the Pistons made a run in the second half, they somehow managed to dig deep and find the energy to hold them off.  You can't help but be proud of these guys.  They deserve all the respect in the world.    

Rethinking The Blazers' Front Court Needs

Going into this season, the plan for the Blazer front court was relatively clear. Oden and Przybilla would platoon the center position, taking up virtually all the available center minutes between them, and LaMarcus Aldridge would play the vast majority of the available minutes at power forward. It wasn't clear who would fill the 10 or so additional power forward minutes, at least long term, but the rest of the front court rotation was set.

With the injuries to Oden and Przybilla, the front court rotation will obviously look quite different for at least the remainder of this season. Reports suggest that Blazer management will be making a decision very soon on whether to seek additional front court help via a pre-deadline trade. With that in mind, I think it's worth re-examining some of the assumptions underlying the way the Blazers have structured the team.

In particular, I think it's worth re-examining the assumption that what the Blazers really need is an Oden/Przybilla clone, a defensive-minded big who can block shots and rebound. But as valuable as guys like Oden and Przybilla are defensively and on the glass, the reality is that on offense, they make life much more difficult for guys like Brandon Roy, Andre Miller, and Jerryd Bayless. Because neither of them is a threat to hit even a mid-range shot, their defenders can afford to cheat back and clog the lane, making it much more difficult for Blazer guards to penetrate. I don't think it's a coincidence that the play of the entire Blazer backcourt has improved dramatically since Oden and Przybilla went down with injury. The guys who have assumed their front court minutes -- Lamarcus, Juwan, Jeff, and Dante -- can all hit a mid-range jump shot and therefore create more space on offense. Indeed, according to BasketballValue.com the most effective 5 man lineup for the Blazers this season has been Miller-Bayless-Webster-Aldridge-Howard (no Roy, interestingly enough).

And this phenomenon isn't confined to this season. Last year, some of the Blazers' most potent lineups were ones that featured Aldridge at the five and Travis Outlaw at the four, with both Oden and Przybilla on the bench. And it's not hard to see why. Outlaw and Aldridge each demand defensive attention on the perimeter and therefore create a lot of space for the offense to operate in.

As Kevin Pelton pointed out yesterday at Basketball Prospectus, the hottest team in the NBA right now, the Charlotte Bobcats, began their current streak when they lost center Tyson Chandler. In Chandler's place, Charlotte has started the more offensively capable Nazr Mohammed (who can at least hit a midrange shot). Moreover, for significant stretches of the game, Charlotte now plays Boris Diaw at the five, a guy who can hit 3-pointers. That lineup really stretches the defense and has dramatically improved Charlotte's offense.

The same phenomenon plays out with the Lakers. Andrew Bynum is a talented center, but the Lakers play much better when Gasol and Odom man the front court. Indeed, Bynum has only sixth best plus/minus on that team and actually has a negative adjusted plus/minus.

And look at the Phoenix Suns. Their most effective lineups are those that feature Channing Frye at the five. Frye has, by far, the highest plus/minus of anyone on that team.

The Houston Rockets are similar. Their most effective lineups are the ones that feature the 3-point shooting David Anderson at center instead of the defensively solid, but offensively limited, Chuck Hayes. Anderson has the highest plus/minus of any Rocket.

For the Toronto Raptors, the sharp-shooting Andrea Bargnani has the highest plus/minus of any of their core players and, though a liability on defense, lineups featuring Bargnani in the front court have had offensive efficiency ratings through the roof this season.

What these numbers suggest is that manning both front court positions with guys who can shoot is often a really effective strategy, even when it means putting a guy out there (Frye, Anderson, Bargnani) who doesn't contribute much on the boards or on the defensive end. In other words, the boost in offensive effeciency often more than makes up for any defensive drop off.

None of this is to suggest that there isn't an important role on good teams for guys like Oden and Przybilla. There definitely is. In many situations, and against many teams, the defense and rebounding that guys like that provide will more than compensate for the congestion they create on offense. On the other hand, stats like the ones above do suggest that it valuable to have at least the option of putting two genuine stretch bigs on the floor simultaneously.

Even assuming everyone is healthy, the only Blazer lineup the comes close to this is one where Outlaw plays the four and Aldridge plays the five. But Outlaw is an undersized four, at best, and he may well not be on the team next year given his contract status. Plus, he's injured now. Given all that, I wonder if the potential move that makes the most sense at the moment is to try to acquire a genuine stretch big, a guy who can play either the four or five and hit threes.

If the Blazers could add a player of the Antawn Jamison/Mehmet Okur variety -- someone who could play alongside Aldridge for stretches -- it could really open things up offensively. I think such a player could conceivably help the team more, even this year, than a Brendan Haywood or Marcus Camby type rent-a-center.

I think that if the Blazers do make a trade, ideally it should be for a stretch big who can contribute beyond this season. What I'd like to see next year is an Aldridge/Oden starting frontcourt with a stretch big coming off the bench who can both backup Aldridge and play some stretches of the game alongside him, thereby putting two stretch bigs on the floor at once. At the same time, I'd like to see Aldridge work on extending his range to the three point line and Oden work on developing a foul line range shot. If all of those things happen, I think it could make the Blazer offense considerably more potent than it is now. The congestion factor would be greatly reduced and guys like Roy, Miller, and Bayless would be the primary beneficiaries.

So is such a trade possible in the next month? Potentially. Clearly the most talented stretch big who is known to be available is Antawn Jamison of the Wizards. At first blush, though, he doesn't seem like the best fit for Portland. He's 33 years old and still has a few years left on his hefty contract. And he really only plays power forward. On the other hand, as the Blazers saw first hand this week, Jamison is still really good, and he isn't overly reliant on quickness or athleticism. Barring injury, he's likely got at least three more productive seasons left in the tank. With the Blazers' current injury-depleted roster, Jamison would likely start, with Aldridge at the five. Longer term, Jamison could reprise his sixth man role from his Dallas days, backing up Aldridge and playing stretches alongside him with Aldridge sliding over to the five.

So what's the downside? Well, first, to get Jamison the Blazers would likely have to package Blake and Outlaw's expiring contracts with some young talent, most likely Rudy Fernandez. Because I think we'll eventually have to part with Rudy anyway, that's not a deal-breaker from my perspective, but I'm sure others will disagree. Second, Jamison is expensive. That's a lot of money to invest in a guy who you have slated to be a bench player. On the hand, as long as Jamison stays healthy, he's good enough that he should remain tradable. So if it's just not working out or the Blazers want to free up cap space to pay someone else, he could probably be moved without too much difficulty.

Another potential target would be Mehmet Okur of the Jazz. Utah is anxious to cut salary and could potentially be amenable to a trade that brings them under the luxury tax threshold. Such a trade would likely have to involve a third team (most likely Memphis) and would require, at minimum, the same trade pieces (Blake, Outlaw, Fernandez). Okur is not as talented as Jamison, but he's a legitimate center and a decent defender/rebounder. His contract is also a little more reasonable ($9 million instead of $11 million). I think, given the Wizards situation, however, Jamison would be much easier to acquire than Okur.

There are, of course, other options. I am by no means wedded to either of these ideas. I do think, though, that Blazers should focus on building a more versatile front court. I don't think that having someone of the Oden/Przybilla mold on the court at all times is a strategy that makes all that much sense given the rest of our personnel. Roy, Miller, and Bayless are all slashers and then need to be given as much room as possible to do what they do best.

Some post-game thoughts (Wizards edition)

Had to work today, so I just finished watching DVR'd game . . .

• The outcome of the game can more or less be explained by the following numbers: 3 for 17.  That's what the Blazers shot from 3 point range.  That's abysmal. If a few more of those go in, the Blazers win.  It was tough watching the replay, knowing that the Blazers only lost by 5, and watching so many shots rattle out.   


• The most intriguing matchup of the game was Miller vs. Miller, as in Andre vs. Mike.  With Brandon out, Andre Miller was forced to guard gargantuan shooting guard Mike Miller, who seemed to be having his way offensively.  He had 13 points on 4 for 4 shooting in 24 minutes.  But while Andre had trouble guarding Mike, the reverse was also true.  Andre had his way offensively, getting to the rim for 6 easy buckets and finishing with 22 points.   Andre also had the best plus/minus of anyone on the team today and it showed. He's been playing as well as any point guard in the league in the month of January.  


• After watching the game, Jerryd Bayless had a better game than the box score indicated.  His 3-9 shooting included a half-court heave at the end of the half and a couple shots that looked good but rattled out.  He had 8 assists, including some nice drive-and-dishes, and was aggressive on both ends of the court.  The alley-oop from Dre was sick.  


• Aldridge had a fantastic offensive game.  He had 22 points and 15 boards, including an astounding 9 offensive rebounds.  He was everywhere on the offensive glass.  The defensive end was another story, but to be fair to Aldridge, he was guarding Antawn Jamison much of the night and Jamison is still an amazing player.  If Jamison gets traded to one of the already super-talented Eastern Conference teams (Cleveland, Boston, Orlando), it just won't even be fair.  


• Martell Webster finished with 18 points, though he took a lot of shots to get those points. No one else really had a game worth commenting on.  


• There's no shame in losing a close road game when you are without the services of Brandon Roy (and Oden, Przybilla, Batum, and Outlaw).  That said, this loss stung a little because it was so winnable.  The Blazers just needed a few breaks to go their way.


• Losses like this may well come back to haunt the team.  Don't look now, but both Oklahoma City and Memphis are just one game back in the loss column.  The Western Conference is brutal this year and the Blazers are going to have a hard time not only staying with the pack, but staying ahead of some of the teams nipping at their heels.  All it will take is a brief losing streak and the Blazers will find themselves outside of the top 8 spots in the West.  

The Emergence of Martell Webster and Andre Miller and What it Means Long Term

Even without their best player in the lineup, the short-handed Blazers throttled the Orlando Magic on Friday.  They were carried by the play of Martell Webster -- who had 24 points, 9 rebounds, and made 5 three pointers -- and Andre Miller -- who had 19 points and 9 assists.  But this wasn't just a case of guys stepping up to fill a void.  Both Webster and Miller have been putting up similar numbers all month.  

Over his last 7 games, Martell is averaging almost 19 points and 7 rebounds a game.  He's shooting well over 40% from 3-point range.  And, just as importantly, he's playing solid defense.  Within the course of just a few weeks, he has gone from a guy the league had forgotten about to a guy most teams would love to have.  If he can maintain anything near this level of production, he will become one of the Blazers most valuable assets, the kind of guy who every GM wants included in any trade proposal.  

As for Miller, he's averaged nearly 19 points and 8 assists over his last 7 games.  He's run the offense well and played under control.  He's been aggressive offensively, posting up smaller guards and fearlessly driving to the rim when he sees an opening.  In short, he's been the guy that Blazer fans imagined he could be when he was first signed.  For long stretches of this season, it was not clear who among the Blazers three point guards deserved the most minutes.  As long as Miller continues to play at this level, though, we won't be having that debate.  

To the extent there is a silver-lining in the Blazers' injury woes, this is surely it.  Had Nic Batum, Travis Outlaw, and Rudy Fernandez remained healthy this season, Webster would have really struggled to find playing time.  As the only legitimate small forward on the active roster for most of the season (and one of only two wings for much of it), Webster has been forced to play big minutes and has managed to work off the rust from sitting out all of last season.  It took him a while, but he's now looking much more confident and comfortable out there, and he's showing real potential to become an elite "D and 3" wing player, the kind of guy all contending teams lust after.  

It took Miller a little longer to get his opportunity, but when Steve Blake was hospitalized with pneumonia, he finally got the chance to shoulder a bigger load at point guard.  And he's responded by playing some of the best ball he's played in years.  Going in to the season, the consensus seemed to be that Miller's contract was very reasonable for someone of his talent and production.  But as the season progressed, and Miller's production diminished due to a more limited role, Miller's value as a trade asset dropped.  The Andre Miller of the last few weeks, however, is definitely a guy who is worth his current contract.  If he keeps playing like this, I don't think Blazer management will have any trouble moving him if they want to.

The real question, with both Martell and Andre, is where do they fit in the Blazers long term plans?  Both play positions at which the Blazers, when healthy, have an abundance of players.  At point guard, the Blazers can't keep Miller, Blake, and Bayless long term.  Someone's got to go. At the wing, the Blazers can't keep Webster, Batum, Fernandez, and Outlaw.  

So should the Blazers consider making a move now?  If so, should Webster or Miller be in that discussion?  

As I've said before, I think the Blazers will ultimately have to choose between Webster and Fernandez, and I think the smarter choice is to keep Webster.  Webster may never be as talented offensively as Fernandez, but he is more versatile (can play both wing positions and power forward in a small lineup) and he plays better defense.  Ultimately, I see Roy, Webster, and Batum taking up virtually all the available wing minutes.  

As for point guard, I really like what I'm seeing from Andre.  I think he "fits" with the rest of the team much better than anyone gives him credit for.  He's the veteran presence that was missing.  I like Blake, but I think it makes the most sense to move him.  Jerryd can play the role of backup combo guard (and starter in waiting), while Miller mans the point for the remaining years on his contract.  

As I see it, the odd men out, at least long term, are Blake, Outlaw, and Fernandez.  With that in mind, if I were Kevin Pritchard, while I wouldn't make any hasty trades, I would certainly look at what I could get right now for a package that included those three players.   

Some post-game thoughts (Bucks edition)

Sorry I'm a little late with this one . . .

• At least through three quarters, the Blazers were really clicking on all cylinders last night. They let their guard down a bit in the 4th, but the outcome was never really in doubt. In fact, I think there was a potentially significant moment in the 4th quarter last night. Nate McMillan saw that the Bucks were making a serious run, got nervous, and called upon . . . Andre Miller to stop the bleeding. I think that's a testament to how much Miller has grown in Nate's estimation in just the last few games. And Miller responded by taking control and stifling Milwaukee's run. Nate will remember that.


• As a fan, I too felt reassured when Miller came back in. He's just such a crafty player. He knows how to manufacture points and stop the other team's momentum by getting to the line. And unlike Bayless and Blake, he's not at all phased by pressure defense. He doesn't seem to get nervous or make mistakes when the other team resorts to a full court press. Over the last few games, Miller has really seemed to cement himself as the top point guard on the team. He had another solid outing last night, getting 19 points on 6 for 8 shooting and adding 6 assists. A number of his buckets came from posting up the much smaller Brandon Jennings. Miller may have the best back-to-the-basket game of any point guard in the NBA.


• The other big story of the night, from my perspective, was that Steve Blake was the first guard off the bench. With both Blake and Fernandez back, it will be interesting to see who Nate goes to off the bench. There aren't going to be enough minutes for Blake, Fernandez, and Bayless to all get the time they seemingly deserve. Tonight Blake got the first call and played with a lot of energy. He pushed the ball up the court quickly every time he touched it, seemingly knowing that his playing time was at stake. He made some good passes and shots, finishing with 11 points, 4 assists, and 5 boards in 28 minutes of play.


• Jerryd Bayless was the next guy in and he had a good 2nd quarter, repeatedly getting to the line for foul shots. He finished with 12 points and 2 assists in 18 minutes, though many of those minutes were in scrub time.


• Brandon Roy had a typical Brandon night, scoring 22 points on 7 for 10 shooting before leaving in the 3rd quarter. Unfortunately, Brandon's hamstring acted up again, forcing him to go to the locker room to get it worked on. At this point, it seems likely that Brandon will at some point have to miss some games to let his leg heal (as he did last year with the same kind of injury).


• LaMarcus Aldridge had a solid statistical night, scoring 21 points (on 10-15 shooting), and adding 7 boards, 6 assists, and 2 blocks. On nights like this, though, you watch Aldridge and you get the sense that he takes harder shots than he needs to, that on many of his touches around the basket, he could just elevate and dunk over people if he were more aggressive. Maybe that's not fair. I don't know.


• Jeff Pendergraph also had a really solid game. He had 9 points, 3 rebounds, and 2 emphatic blocks in 19 minutes of play. He also took a couple of charges and hustled every second he was on the floor. Some of his shots looked surprisingly polished. He hit a jumper from the top of the key as well as a fade away baseline shot in traffic. This guy might have more offensive potential that people give him credit for.


• Finally, it was Rudy's first game back and he got a monstrous ovation when he entered the game. He didn't do all that much on the court and looked a bit rusty, but he managed to hit his first shot and to block Andrew Bogut. Not bad for a first day back.


• The Blazers really needed this win. They've got a difficult schedule coming up and they can't afford to lose games against lower-level Eastern Conference squads. Orlando will be a much tougher challenge.

The Long Term Plan

As hard as it is to believe given how thin the Blazer roster has been lately, there's a minute shortage looming.  You've really got to hand it to Kevin Pritchard and the Blazer front office.  They assembled a 15 man roster that appears to have 15 guys truly capable of contributing at the NBA level.  The 11th (Bayless), 12th (Howard), 13th (Cunningham), and 14th man on the roster (Pendergraph) have all played significant minutes and made major contributions to a winning team.  And the 15th man (Mills) appears have real NBA potential.  Most NBA teams don't even have 15 guys on their rosters, and the guys beyond the 8 or 9 spot are not guys you really want to see out on the court.  

The flip side of depth, however, is the need to make some really tough decisions.  In last night's game, Jerryd Bayless played only 15 minutes and Steve Blake played just 7.  By the end of the week, Rudy Fernandez will be back in the rotation.  In a few weeks, Nicolas Batum will return.  In a month or two, Travis Outlaw will be back.  There aren't nearly enough minutes for all these guys.  

Let's start with Rudy. Let's assume that Brandon Roy will play at last least 36 minutes a game (many nights he'll play more). With just the addition of Rudy to the lineup, that leaves, at most, 108 minutes to be divided between the remaining perimeter players (Miller, Blake, Bayless, Rudy, Webster). That's less than 22 minutes a piece if you divide it even-steven, which isn't that much. And we all know that, in reality, the minutes won't be divided evenly. If one guy gets 30 minutes, someone else will get 10.

Then Nic will return. I can see Nic getting some run at the four spot in a small-ball lineup, but for the most part, his minutes are going to come out of the same 108 minute pool. That's 17 minutes a piece. What that means is that if the roster isn't thinned through trade or (god forbid) further injury, there are going to be one or more Blazer players who are used to having significant playing time who suddenly aren't getting it anymore.

With the trade deadline approaching, now is that time that Blazer fans (and, more importantly, Blazer management) should be giving some real thought to what the team's long term plan is. There's no way we can keep all these guys long term. And even if we could, the minute crunch could very well tear the team apart. It's not healthy to have 12 or more guys on a team who not only think they deserve significant playing time, but are probably right. The best teams are filled out at the bottom of the roster by guys who know their roles and don't feel entitled to more. It's fine to fill those roles with eager rookies or wise veterans, but when you start filling those spots with guys who are just coming into their own or are not yet ready to settle for a reduced role, it's a recipe for turmoil. And those are the kind of guys the Blazers have an abundance of. You can't reasonably ask any of the Blazers' eight perimeter players (including Outlaw, excluding Mills) to be content getting 10 or less minutes a night (much less 5 minutes or a DNP). Some of these guys just have to go, at least after this season. So who do we keep?

In today's NBA, if I were trying to construct a championship team from scratch, here are the pieces I'd try to assemble. At the wings, I would want one dynamic scorer and one defensive specialist. In the front court, I would want a defensively formidable center and an offensively-skilled stretch power forward. At point, I would want someone quick and pesky, a guy who can shoot, defend, and penetrate. To round out the rotation, I would want some role-playing bench guys including a banger who can rebound and play forward or center, a versatile energy guy, and a scorer who can create his own shot.

As you can may have guessed, I think the Blazers already have most of these pieces. A year from now I'd like to see a Blazer starting lineup of Bayless, Roy, Batum, Aldridge, and Oden. I think that has the potential to be a championship team. Obviously it will require some real growth from some of these guys. Roy and Aldridge are probably where they need to be now, but Bayless, Batum, and Oden will all need to fulfill their potential. Bayless needs to become more consistent and continue to work on his distributive skills. Batum needs to work on his offensive game. Oden needs to stay healthy and develop a consistent foul line range shot (which I know he's capable of).

The harder decision, in my mind, is who to keep as the reserves. Obviously, if Joel Przybilla can come back healthy, you keep him. He's the ideal backup center. Beyond him, it gets harder.

Rudy Fernandez and Martell Webster are both solid players and both have the potential to grow into even better players. The problem is that they would both play essentially the same role, the two-three swingman/shooter/sixth man. In my hypothetical championship rotation, one of these guys would come off the bench and play 20-30 minutes backing up both Roy and Batum. I just can decide who ultimately fits better. Rudy offers more on offense: better shooting, better passing, more potential for making the Big Shot. But Webster has much better defensive potential: he's taller, he can guard forwards, he's more versatile. It's a tough call.

We'll obviously need a backup point guard, too, but I'm not convinced that anyone currently on the team is right for that role. An ideal backup point guard is someone who is competent but doesn't feel entitled to more than about 15 minutes a game. Andre Miller is way too good to be a backup point guard. It's a closer call with Steve Blake, but I'm not convinced that Blake is ready to accept that role either. And the problem with keeping Blake is that Nate McMillan will end up playing him for much more than 15 minutes. If there's a guy who has potential to be the right backup point guard on the team, it's Patty Mills. As a late second round pick, Mills obviously has to first prove that he's worthy of making an NBA roster, but his limited play in the D-League has been encouraging. He may ultimately prove to be a good compliment to Bayless. If Mills finishes the year in the D-League strong and looks good in next year's Summer League, I'd really consider giving the backup point guard job to him and parting ways with both Blake and Miller.

I think the remaining candidates to round out the rotation are this year's rookies, Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham. As second round draft picks, neither of those guys feels entitled to playing time. Both will work hard and embrace their roles, even if limited. Dante has all the looks of an ideal role player. He hustles, plays solid defense, and can hit open shots. The same is true of Pendergraph. Dante can swing between the 3 and 4. Pendergraph can swing between the 4 and 5. I'm not sure either of them will ever be a starter in the league, but both have the potential to be excellent reserves.

So here's the long term depth chart, as I see it:

PG: Bayless, Mills
SG: Roy, Webster
SF: Batum, Webster, Cunningham
PF: Aldridge, Pendergraph, Cunningham
C: Oden, Przybilla, Pendergraph

As you can see, I chose Webster over Rudy. It was a tough call, but I think, on balance, he offers more defense and more versatility. As you can also see, I don't really see a long term role for Blake, Miller, or Outlaw. I like all of those guys, but like I said, we can't keep them all. Those are the guys who I see as expendable. I would aim to fill the remaining 4 or 5 spots on the roster with a mix of veterans of the Juwan Howard, Ime Udoka mold (who can still play but don't feel entitled to minutes) and low-profile rookies of the Pendergraph/Cunningham mold (who are eager to play but don't feel entitled to minutes).  

But I'm not the GM, so I guess we'll just wait and see.

Some post-game thoughts (Cavs edition)

Well, that was a typical Blazers-Cavs game, close until the very end and then the Cavs pull away in final minutes . . .

• The Blazers have played a number of games since Joel Przybilla went down, but this was the first where, as a fan, you were acutely aware the entire game that the Blazers were playing without a center.  Playing Shaq has a way of doing that.  I'm actually surprised that the Cavs didn't try to exploit the mismatch more.  Shaq looked like he could have scored at will, but somehow he only came away with 11 points.  


• Lebron was Lebron.  The dude is the best basketball player alive, and it's not close.  He had 41 points, 10 rebounds and 8 assists.  Martell Webster did a decent job covering James in one-on-one situations, making him take tough contested shots.  But in transition, Lebron is unstoppable.  And when he's hitting threes, there's not much you can do either.  He can get a jump shot off against anyone.  


• For the Blazers, Roy put up another strong effort, finishing with 34 points and leading the Blazers back from a 17 point 3rd quarter deficit to tie the game halfway through the 4th.  Unfortunately, once the Blazers switched to the Roy-at-point crunch time offense, the offense completely stalled and the Cavs went on a 9-0 run.  As good as Roy is, I'm not convinced that it's a good idea to have Roy lead the offense in crunch time.  It just seems that whenever that happens, all offensive movement stops and everyone just stands around.  That's fine when you're holding for the last possession, but when there's still five or six minutes left in the game, it's a recipe for stagnant offensive play and forced jump shots.  


• Andre Miller had a pretty solid game as well.  He had 14 points and 8 assists and really kept the offense flowing.  The team looked better when he was out there, which is probably why he played for a season high 41 minutes.  


• Steve Blake, who played for the first time since being hospitalized, was in the game for only 7 minutes and looked rusty.  He missed is only field goal attempt badly.  And in just 7 minutes, he had the worst plus/minus of any Blazer at -13.  At this point, when Blake isn't shooting, he's just taking minutes away from someone who is more likely to score.  


• That person tonight was Jerryd Bayless, who played just 15 minutes.  Bayless scored just 4 points on 1-6 shooting, but he was aggressive and probably could have done some damage if he was in the game longer.  As more guys become healthy, the minutes crunch will only become more acute.  Tonight, Bayless played 15 minutes and Blake played 7.  Both probably felt they should have played more.  Now imagine how it's going to be when Rudy Fernandez and Nic Batum are back.  Unless the roster is thinned through injury or trade, there aren't going to be nearly enough minutes to go around.   


• As noted above, Martell Webster had easily the toughest defensive assignment tonight, and he acquitted himself reasonably well.  Lebron was just on fire in the first half.  He made Lebron work for his shots in half-court sets.  On offense, Martell had 12 points, but he was only 2 for 9 from 3-point range.  He was the only Blazer with a positive plus/minus (+1), though, so overall, he was not the problem tonight.  He contributed.


• LaMarcus Aldridge had an excellent night statistically.  He had 18 points (on 8 for 11 shooting) and 13 boards.  But watching the game, I got the sense that he was not being nearly aggressive enough offensively.  Most of his shots seemed harder and farther from the hoop than they need to be and he seemed to pass up a lot of opportunities around the hoop.  I still think his ankle is hurting him and preventing him from making any explosive moves.  


• The difference in the game was probably the rebound differential.  Cleveland out-rebounded Portland 42 to 32.  This was a close game until the very end.  A few more possession here and there and the Blazers might well have pulled it out.  


• All in all, the Blazers shouldn't get too down about this one.  Cleveland is a really good team and they were hitting everything early in the game.  The Blazers, short-handed as they were, managed to claw back from a 17 point 3rd quarter deficit to tie things up.  They just couldn't quite get over the hump.  

Some post-game thoughts (Lakers edition)

And the Lakers' streak of futility at the Rose Garden continues . . .

• That stat line of the night: Brandon Roy scored 32 points on just 11 shots (he was 9 for 11).  Kobe Bryant also had 32 points, but he took 37 shots (he was 14 for 37).  Advantage Roy.  That is called efficiency, folks. 


• Just about everyone had a good night for Portland.  Andre Miller was aggressive all night, scoring 17 points and adding 7 assists and 3 boards.  Showing no hard feelings from yesterday's spat, Nate put Miller back in down the stretch, despite the fact that Jerryd Bayless was playing well.  Miller responded with a beautiful backdoor pass to Roy for a layup to effectively seal the game.  


• Jerryd Bayless only played 21 minutes tonight, but he made the most of them, scoring 21 points and adding 3 assists, 3 rebounds, and a block.  He started out the game shooting lights out, making his first 5 shots.  All of them should have been three pointers, but on four of them, Bayless had a toe on the line.  My guess is that the coaching staff is going spend some practice time with Bayless going footwork drills.  Quibbles aside, though, Bayless had a solid night.  In the second half he repeatedly drove to the hoop and drew trips to the foul line.  He took 12 foul shots in 21 minutes.  That's Bayless at his best. 


• Martell Webster had yet another solid game.  His shot was off (6-17, 2-10 from 3-point range), but he still managed to score 14 points and pull down 8 rebounds.  More importantly, though, he capably guarded Kobe Bryant all night, played 46 minutes, and played with energy every second he was out on the court.  


• The other guy who played with a lot of energy was Dante Cunningham.  Nate played Cunningham ahead of Pendergraph in the rotation tonight, apparently because he thought he matched up better with Lamar Odom.  Dante had 7 points, 5 rebounds, and a block in 18 minutes of play.  He finished with the highest plus/minus of any player (+16) which is impressive given how few minutes he played.  Dante seems to consistently finish with a solid plus/minus. It's got to be his defense.  


• Juwan Howard continued to play like he's ten years younger, finishing with 8 points and 10 rebounds.    


• Lamarcus Aldridge is the only Blazer who had an off night.  He wasn't bad; he was just quiet.  He wasn't very aggressive, settling mostly for outside shots.  He finished with 8 points and 8 boards.  He did have 4 assists, though, all of them nice ones.  I don't think LMA is back to 100% on that ankle.  


• As seems to always be the case when the Lakers play in the Rose Garden, they just got out-hustled tonight.  The Blazers, despite their small frontline, out-rebounded LA 42 to 38.  They also got more fast break points (10 to 2).  Most telling, though, was the free throw disparity.  The Blazers shot 39 foul shots compared to 10 for the Lakers.  Part of that was that the Blazers were more aggressive.  Part of it was that the Lakers made a number of dumb fouls early in each quarter, putting themselves in the penalty and giving the Blazers a lot of extra foul shots.  


• Watching the Blazers handle the Lakers yet again, it makes me wonder what might have been had the Blazers managed to get past Houston in the playoffs last year.  I really think the Blazers could have given LA a run for its money.  We've always matched up well against those guys.   

Some post-game thoughts (Gizzlies edition)

Well, that sucked . . .

• The Blazers had that game in the bag and blew it.  Those are always the worst kind of losses.  This one is especially painful given the difficult slate of games ahead.  The Blazers needed that one.  I'm sure many fans are tempted to blame the refs, but I actually think they made the right call.  Mayo stole the ball cleanly and Roy climbed over him to get it back.  That's a foul.  They probably could have called a foul on Martell's three point shot, but the contact came after the shot left his hand and you don't normally get those calls late in the game.  The bottom line is that the Blazers played way too conservatively down the stretch and just didn't get good shots.  It's okay to use up some clock, but you don't want to handicap yourself by leaving too little time to get a good look.  If Roy's going to handle the ball down the stretch, he needs to make his move sooner.  


• The most puzzling aspect of this game (to me, at least) was the fact that Andre Miller sat virtually the entire fourth quarter.  Up to that point Dre was playing superbly, just as he did last night against the Clippers.  When he left at the end of the 3rd quarter, Miller had 16 points (on 7-11 shooting), 4 assists (though he would have had more if guys made their shots) and 10 rebounds (!).  But Nate chose instead to stick with Jerryd Bayless down the stretch.  I'm not sure whether that's a vote of confidence in Bayless or a reflection of lack of comfort with Dre.  Based on Dre's face expressions during the quarter, I'm guessing he thinks the latter.


• In Nate's defense, though, Jerryd actually had a decent night himself.  He looked much more under control tonight, scoring 13 points on 5-10 shooting and adding 5 assists and 4 rebounds.  He had a chance to tie the game at the line with a few seconds left, but his first foul shot rattled out.  It was a good looking shot.  Just bad luck.  


• Brandon Roy had a good night too, scoring 27 points and adding 9 assists and 3 boards. Down the stretch, though, Brandon made some really bad decisions.  He held the ball too long on the last few possessions and made a huge mistake on what should have been the final possession, allowing Mayo to steal the ball from him and then fouling him, putting Mayo on the line for what turned out to be the winning foul shots.


• Martell Webster continued to pour it on offensively, scoring 21 points on 8-15 shooting.  The last four games have been the most productive of Martell's career.  He also hustled on the defensive end, getting 3 steals.  


• Both Jeff Pendergraph and Juwan Howard had solid outings.  The weak link tonight was LaMarcus Aldridge, who still looked injured.  He managed to score 11 points and pull down 7 boards, but he just looked slow all night and never really found a rhythm.  I wondered at times if the Blazers might be better off playing Dante Cunningham, who ended up getting a DNP tonight.  They could have used his energy on the defensive end and they wouldn't have lost much on offense.  


• This game reminded me a lot of the Orlando game last year, where the Blazers were up by eight with just over a minute left and managed to lose it, ending with a Hedo Turkoglu banked three pointer.  It was that kind of game, and I'm sure it left a really bad taste in their mouths.  A really solid all around effort was spoiled by lack of execution down the stretch.  I hope the team can remember how they played the first 45 minutes of the game and forget the last 3.  

Some post-game thoughts (Clippers edition)

Well, I guess reality had to catch up with us eventually . . .

• The Blazers hung with the Clippers tonight through three quarters, but they were eventually done in by the Clippers torrid shooting.  Blazer fans really shouldn't lose any sleep over this loss.  It's not at all embarrassing to lose severely short-handed on the road to a near .500 team that is shooting lights out from the field.  


• The Blazers actually played a very solid game.  They shot over 50% from the field and forced a number of turnovers with aggressive defense.  But the Clippers were simply on fire, especially in the second half.  They shot 58% from the field and a completely aberrational 62% (8-13) from the 3-point line.  When guys like Ricky Davis are hitting every shot, there's not much you can do.  Despite giving up lots of height, the Blazers generally contested most shots.  The Clips just made them anyway.  The Blazers did allow quite a bit of penetration by the Clipper guards, especially late in the game, but that's to be expected when a team is hitting all of its outside shots.  You have to cover the shooters and that creates space.  


• Despite it all, however, the Blazers might well have won the game if Brandon Roy had even an average night.  He finished with a mere six points on 3-12 shooting.  His streak of games with 23+ points ended tonight.  A big reason for Roy's off night was the Clippers decision to trap and double-team him as soon as he touched the ball.  Roy was not able to get out of the traps or, for the most part, find the open man.  He was simply taken out of the flow of the game.  


• Nevertheless, the Blazers kept it close most of the night thanks to the play of some other guys, chief among them Andre Miller.  Miller had a monster night, finishing with 22 points, 16 assists, 3 boards, and 3 steals.  He was aggressive and poised and looked like the guy everyone was hoping he could be when the Blazers signed him this off-season.


• Martell Webster also had a great night.  He finished with 25 points and 6 rebounds, including 5 three pointers.  


• The Blazers third highest scorer tonight -- as hard it is to believe -- was Juwan Howard.  Howard had his outside shot going tonight and finished with 16 points on 8-11 shooting.  Toward the end of the first half, he got a feed from Brandon Roy near the hoop and absolutely posterized Chris Kaman, dunking the ball viciously.  I'm not sure even young Howard ever did anything like that.  The crowd was momentarily stunned.


• Jeff Pendergraph and Dante Cunningham each made solid contributions.  Pendergraph had 8 points, 7 boards, and 1 block in 30 minutes.  Cunningham had 7 points, 3 boards, and 3 steals (!) in 23 minutes of play.  For the third game in a row, I was really impressed by Cunningham's defensive play.  Like Nic Batum, he seems to have excellent defensive instincts and a knack for getting into passing lanes and knowing when to help.  Cunningham has the potential to carve out a role for himself as a defensive specialist.  And his outside shot looked pretty good tonight, too.  


•  Jerryd Bayless had a tough night, for the third game in a row.  Bayless scored just 7 points on 2-6 shooting and had 3 turnovers.  The confidence that seemed to be oozing from him just a few games ago is now gone.  He looks very tentative out there, much like he did in his spot minutes last season. His jump shot is not falling and he seems to have, at least for the moment, lost his ability to penetrate and draw fouls.  He needs to get his mojo back.  To his credit, though, he seems to be playing pretty solid defense.  Whenever anyone beats their man, he seems to be the first guy there to help out.  He's at least contributing on that end.  


• Patty Mills got some very limited run tonight in his first NBA game.  He didn't score any points, but he got two assists.    

Some post-game thoughts (Warriors edition)

And the Blazers keep finding ways to win . . .

• Tonight's game was one of the more bizarre NBA games I've ever watched.  The injury-ravaged Blazers had only eight men in uniform tonight: three guards, one small forward, and four power forwards.  They had only one guy (Roy) who was in the regular rotation last year.  They had no one taller than 6'9'' and their big men consisted of two rookies, a 37 year old, and guy signed off waivers this week.  Golden State, on the other hand, had three healthy bigs with size and skill: Andris Biedrins, Ronnie Turiaf, and Anthony Randolph. Yet for reasons that only Don Nelson understands, no more than one of these three guys was ever in the game at the same time.  Not only did Golden State fail to utilize their significant height advantage, they chose to go small.  Nate McMillan responded (just 3 minutes into the game) by taking out Jeff Pendergraph and bringing in Jerryd Bayless.  For virtually the entire game, the Blazers fielded a lineup consisting of two point guards (Miller, Bayless), a shooting guard (Roy), a small forward (Webster) and a power forward (Howard or Cunningham).  For long stretches of the game, Dante Cunningham was the tallest Blazer player on the court.  I never thought I'd see that.  


• But it worked.  By playing small, Nelson made things much easier for the Blazer coaching staff.  McMillan was able to play his four best healthy players (all small guys) simultaneously and without having to worry about a drop off on the defensive end or on the boards.  In fact, the Blazers ended up out-rebounding the Warriors 43 to 36, which is really pretty astounding.  


• The hero of the night, yet again, was Brandon Roy, who had a quiet (if that's possible) and ruthlessly efficient 37 points on 12-16 shooting.  He added 6 boards and 5 assists.  It's hard not to take the guy for granted.  He's just so consistently great.  


• Andre Miller also deserves a lot of praise.  He had his best game as a Blazer tonight, finishing with 23 points, 6 assists, and 5 rebounds.  And though it's not reflected in the box score, Miller flat out battled all night.  None of his points were easy ones.  He manufactured points the hard way and worked his tail off all night, logging 44 minutes.  


• Martell Webster showed up to play, too.  He finished with 21 points, 11 rebounds, 3 assists, and 2 blocks, and he only sat for 2 minutes the entire game.  He hit a few huge 3 pointers down the stretch to seal the game.  This was probably his best game of the season.  


• Juwan Howard had yet another solid game, scoring 12 points and pulling down 6 boards in 34 minutes of play.  He also had 2 steals.  The guy is giving us way more than it was reasonable to expect from him.  


• One of the best stories of the night was the play of rookie Dante Cunningham.  I'm pretty certain that Dante never imagined that he'd ever play center in the NBA.  But he did tonight.  And he did well, scoring 6 points and pulling down 10 rebounds.  Cunningham played fantastic defense all night long.  He was consistently in the right place at the right time on the defensive end and gave the Warriors all kinds of trouble.  It's the second game in a row that Cunningham has played inspired defensive.


• The one Blazer who had a bit of a down night was Jerryd Bayless.  Though he played 40 minutes, he only scored 6 points (along with 2 assists and 3 boards).  He had another terrible shooting night, going 2-11 from the field.  Part of the problem, it seemed to me, was that Jerryd didn't have the ball in his hands very often.  He played alongside Miller and Roy virtually all night and both of them were being very aggressive offensively.  That left Bayless standing around on the weak-side perimeter much of the time.  He never had much of a chance to get into a rhythm offensively.  On defense, though, Jerryd seem to be playing aggressively and giving Golden State (and Monta Ellis specifically) some problems.  Despite his off night offensively, Bayless finished with the highest plus/minus of any Blazer (+20).  


• Jeff Pendergraph got his first career start tonight, but was yanked after a few minutes when Nate realized that Golden State was going to play small ball.  Pendergraph ended up playing only 9 minutes total.  


• Overall, this was another gutsy win for the Blazers.  That a team missing this many key players can still compete and win is a testament not only to the depth of the roster assembled by Blazer management, but the heart and determination of the guys left standing.  They really stepped it up tonight and made every Blazer fan incredibly proud.  I don't know how long they can keep this up, but nothing will really surprise me at this point.